{
  "slug": "ai-get-nobel-prize-before-2040",
  "canonical_title": "will an AI get a nobel prize before 2040?",
  "category": "science",
  "consensus_probability": 0.262,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-07-08T13:31:19.876Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.2619835778909594,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/CimoreneBlume/will-an-ai-get-a-nobel-prize-before-8S65Ipcc6l",
      "fetched_at": "2026-07-08T13:31:19.876Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T21:10:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.3717472118959108
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T22:09:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.23584905660377362
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T22:43:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.21691973969631237
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T00:26:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.2000000000000001
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T03:51:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.09999999999999999
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T05:17:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.2862807295796986
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T08:42:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7273553468645865
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T08:52:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5600000000000002
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T09:56:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5800000000000001
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T13:45:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6346047003520657
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T15:25:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.55
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T15:38:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5017904144053721
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T15:51:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.44999999999999996
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T16:26:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4076091594882619
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T20:09:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.37960581790160447
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-06T11:48:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.28642193187157433
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-07T00:13:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.2619835778909594
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}