{
  "slug": "andy-burnham-last-2-years-niall-ferguson-bet",
  "canonical_title": "Will Andy Burnham last 2 years? (Niall Ferguson bet.)",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.4873,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-07-07T07:40:05.303Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.4872868795124357,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/uair01/will-andy-burnham-last-2-years-nial",
      "fetched_at": "2026-07-07T07:40:05.303Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T19:16:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T20:31:18.320Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.47562425683709864
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T20:34:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5255054281748638
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T23:51:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.49000000000000016
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T10:07:05.306Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5384949497564026
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T06:00:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4872868795124357
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}