{
  "slug": "astra-solve-elliot-glazers-prototype-frontiermath-problem",
  "canonical_title": "Will Astra solve Elliot Glazer's prototype FrontierMath problem?",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.2249,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:04.839Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.22492792275729231,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-astra-solve-elliot-glazers-pro",
      "fetched_at": "2026-08-04T23:59:04.839Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-02T00:47:04.840Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.39445848935810157
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-02T01:03:04.840Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.24850147398649292
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-02T02:04:04.840Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.23806570661115597
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-02T10:45:04.843Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.2253614572412694
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-02T23:23:04.839Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.26714063784065595
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-03T21:29:04.840Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.2448215572285535
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-04T13:47:04.839Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.22492792275729231
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}