{
  "slug": "conflict-iran-after-u-s-midterm-elections",
  "canonical_title": "Will there be a conflict in Iran after the U.S. midterm elections?”",
  "category": "politics",
  "consensus_probability": 0.4093,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-06-30T19:00:08.057Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.40934995757023945,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/AyetKaabi/will-there-be-a-conflict-in-iran-af",
      "fetched_at": "2026-06-30T19:00:08.057Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-26T17:15:08.055Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.3500820195668488
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-26T17:21:08.056Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.3662482653675991
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-26T17:36:08.055Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.3238888029320516
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-28T17:28:08.056Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.40934995757023945
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}