{
  "slug": "if-china-invades-taiwan-direct-military-involvement-us-eoy-2030",
  "canonical_title": "If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030",
  "category": "science",
  "consensus_probability": 0.4463,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-08-04T15:44:04.840Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.4463031734887155,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/JasonMendoza2008/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-there",
      "fetched_at": "2026-08-04T15:44:04.840Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T16:31:04.839Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.42
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T17:11:04.840Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.45222642701555815
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T17:16:04.840Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4463031734887155
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}