{
  "slug": "if-nigel-farage-wins-clacton-election-he-recalled-anyway",
  "canonical_title": "If Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election, will he be recalled anyway?",
  "category": "politics",
  "consensus_probability": 0.447,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-07-11T13:08:41.665Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.4469851623970924,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/a_l_e_x/if-nigel-farage-wins-the-clacton-by",
      "fetched_at": "2026-07-11T13:08:41.665Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-07T14:48:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-07T14:56:05.306Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4305705059203444
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-08T04:25:19.876Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.45817084006565445
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-08T07:57:19.876Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4745387199573688
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-08T08:32:19.889Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5001551599207464
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-08T13:31:19.876Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4853754115601245
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-09T09:45:52.223Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.49682960857690234
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-09T21:30:52.841Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4712277848540771
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-10T12:04:49.132Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4483207394832015
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}