{
  "slug": "iran-us-actually-cease-fire-before-september-2026",
  "canonical_title": "Will Iran and US actually cease fire before September 2026?",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.1649,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-08-18T03:49:43.148Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.16490841126022163,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/apol/will-iran-and-us-actually-cease-fir",
      "fetched_at": "2026-08-18T03:49:43.148Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-13T07:20:41.680Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.45248868778280543
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-13T08:10:38.546Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.47912743082833814
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-13T08:58:34.442Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.32999999999999996
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-13T10:16:38.145Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.17
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-13T11:54:36.861Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.15787129175037956
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-13T14:27:35.568Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.11243688459872035
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-13T15:25:36.148Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.09651409489296804
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-14T07:15:35.053Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.11860982020170126
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-14T16:33:06.290Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.11128171206422488
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-15T19:05:05.399Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.11999999999999997
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-16T08:58:05.391Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.16490841126022163
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}