{
  "slug": "least-one-more-peace-talk-us-iran-before-august-1",
  "canonical_title": "Will there be at least one more peace talk by the US and Iran before August 1?",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.9,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-07-08T18:10:19.883Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.8999999999999999,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/apol/will-there-be-at-least-one-more-pea",
      "fetched_at": "2026-07-08T18:10:19.883Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T04:55:05.305Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T05:22:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6923076923076923
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T05:28:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7240922635470699
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T05:40:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8179965055329063
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T05:56:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8313204237230956
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T07:17:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9302993248990672
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T09:02:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.886563724297617
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T09:52:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8934429847403945
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T09:53:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8822391250368635
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T10:54:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8588796901697339
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T15:25:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9300000000000002
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T17:57:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9381597312143036
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T20:09:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9288619417572452
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-06T03:55:05.305Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8148078993929739
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-06T06:53:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7736171349533854
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-06T08:57:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8999155182911028
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-06T13:08:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9109607027029588
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-08T04:45:19.878Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8999999999999999
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}