{
  "slug": "mitch-mcconnell-alive-all-july-2026",
  "canonical_title": "Mitch McConnell alive all of July 2026?",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.82,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-07-05T03:00:05.305Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.8199999999999998,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/CryptoNeoLiberalist/mitch-mcconnell-alive-all-of-july-2",
      "fetched_at": "2026-07-05T03:00:05.305Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T21:24:08.057Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.490099980396001
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T21:47:08.057Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.703511139409085
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T22:01:08.057Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6779769367202165
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T22:08:08.055Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6925882873432645
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T22:15:08.056Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.800158074750825
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T22:16:08.057Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8467937051207064
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T22:32:08.055Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8521747853015716
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T22:45:08.055Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8754319405309811
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-01T23:17:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8844023168296745
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T01:32:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.86
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T03:37:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8986965891768863
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T05:06:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7999999999999999
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T05:14:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5927627888336963
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T05:44:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7443790139239137
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T06:13:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7562214549053606
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T06:50:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.775685666154051
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T06:51:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7933861007448723
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T07:14:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7797754381525197
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T08:17:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7920634134432334
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T09:21:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8408766474853426
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T11:11:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8613024458867602
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T11:14:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8492685259356263
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T13:15:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8182551299381067
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T14:34:18.319Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8250801144792932
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T14:47:18.321Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8376958401888197
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T15:13:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8252475889924898
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T17:40:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8363303815415614
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T17:59:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8158606154946337
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T18:33:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8232153207369569
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T19:12:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.83
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T19:33:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8115207916126757
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T20:22:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7142616650809799
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T20:52:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6460787805172672
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T21:06:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6928506119633906
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T21:33:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7200000000000002
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T21:55:18.320Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7053510553986827
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T22:09:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7560620502776967
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T22:13:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.79
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T22:15:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7848455334002966
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T22:16:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7934446063516404
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T23:05:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8167160623336109
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T23:25:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.78862107951457
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-02T23:28:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7562532850328905
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T00:17:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.71
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T00:22:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6903439112789853
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T00:36:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7510802696005368
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T00:44:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7563849710846907
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T00:53:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.744044948404416
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T02:19:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7548979579345142
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T02:23:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.762499964338502
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T02:52:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7816061959504698
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T03:09:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7920781681715169
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T04:43:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8014002581799691
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T05:11:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7882501170681226
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T05:45:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8294607587012033
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T05:53:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8577312194549547
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T07:08:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8649174877806886
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T09:11:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.79
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T10:00:18.322Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.762416813767546
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T10:45:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7838619933994296
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T10:58:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7925144108664789
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T12:18:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8006995486752577
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T13:11:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7891460524337276
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T13:13:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T15:00:18.320Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8414986754810849
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T15:46:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8136815633826859
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T16:08:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8210193410709674
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T16:59:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8316747522693652
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T17:10:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8449932657498258
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T18:14:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8541311898221328
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T18:16:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8611964515196052
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T19:48:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8491603382251025
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T20:16:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8181427836929415
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T20:19:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8249735958216837
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T20:40:18.319Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8174696219963243
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T20:42:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8015783548890606
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T21:06:18.320Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7886326818270952
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T21:14:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7986506801266795
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T21:25:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7825692124148332
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T21:28:18.319Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8450776122293326
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T21:46:18.318Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8389356624177887
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T22:29:18.320Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8327436312301314
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T22:34:18.323Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8388261084543459
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T23:22:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T23:38:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8054938268603302
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-03T23:39:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T00:09:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8350515463917526
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T00:10:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9000000000000001
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T00:34:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.872836858708076
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T01:52:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8496582234159785
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T02:33:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8190149114529108
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T02:49:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.83
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T03:25:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8576461080135563
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T03:45:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.83
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T04:06:18.315Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8464196073137568
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T04:55:18.317Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.82
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T05:05:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7883045637847997
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T06:10:18.316Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7967164855666518
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T08:02:05.306Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.77
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T10:43:05.306Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7814098372862928
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T13:20:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7669470718304165
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T13:58:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T14:41:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8077847188851514
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T17:27:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T17:34:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8053083600354849
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T18:12:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8172558721337854
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T19:06:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8789810063392025
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T20:58:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8737890516549062
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T21:10:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8609546291908942
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T21:42:05.305Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8368681374523802
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T22:09:05.303Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8510658366803618
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-04T22:55:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.826734608397106
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-05T02:25:05.304Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8199999999999998
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}