{
  "slug": "new-war-1-july-2026",
  "canonical_title": "Will there be a new war by the 1 of July 2026?",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.2176,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-06-25T08:20:08.056Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.21763150573686854,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/StasMoore/will-there-be-a-new-war-by-the-1-of",
      "fetched_at": "2026-06-25T08:20:08.056Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-21T11:56:37.519Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.07000000000000002
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-21T14:19:37.828Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.07762505229355487
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-21T20:52:37.537Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.049810661664760315
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-22T10:34:11.679Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.22999999999999998
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-22T17:13:08.056Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.16785839861985907
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-25T05:01:08.057Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.21763150573686854
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}