{
  "slug": "selective-optimism-critique-ai-2040-make-top-fifty-posts-lesswrongs-2026-annual",
  "canonical_title": "Will \"Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040\" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?",
  "category": "science",
  "consensus_probability": 0.1874,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-07-14T20:15:18.461Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.18743119220250776,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-selective-optimism-a-critique",
      "fetched_at": "2026-07-14T20:15:18.461Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-10T04:01:48.752Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.14
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-10T09:30:53.344Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.18743119220250776
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}