{
  "slug": "situational-awareness-bigger-than-citadel-eoy-2029",
  "canonical_title": "Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029?",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.2736,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 2,
  "spread_pp": 1.49,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-08-01T16:23:04.839Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.2810217588975974,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-situational-awareness-be-bigge",
      "fetched_at": "2026-08-01T16:23:04.839Z"
    },
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.26607871576397163,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-situational-awareness-be-bigge-Z0gIhE2cZU",
      "fetched_at": "2026-08-01T16:23:04.839Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-31T17:38:49.016Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.3076923076923077
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-31T17:41:49.017Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.14280614066404862
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-31T17:49:49.018Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.13328890369876714
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-31T17:51:49.016Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.12062726176115805
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-31T18:50:49.018Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.10000000000000009
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-31T21:01:49.017Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.08796312585764059
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-31T22:02:49.016Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.09999999999999996
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T01:47:49.014Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.1109881860207831
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T03:36:49.017Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.09999999999999996
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T03:49:49.016Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.13000000000000003
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T07:00:49.016Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.2292870400016991
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T11:51:49.015Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.22052865255168988
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T12:52:49.015Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.3206530154748391
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T13:06:49.016Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.31183062724040206
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-08-01T13:09:49.015Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.2845776190280016
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}