{
  "slug": "us-china-impose-ban-releasing-open-weight-ais-above-certain-threshold-before",
  "canonical_title": "Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030",
  "category": "science",
  "consensus_probability": 0.6008,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-07-18T10:36:48.606Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.6008242543481024,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-the-us-or-china-impose-a-ban-o",
      "fetched_at": "2026-07-18T10:36:48.606Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-13T22:50:19.662Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8350515463917525
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-13T22:52:19.072Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7388994047754797
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-13T23:02:19.153Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.75
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-13T23:09:18.946Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7175823077806941
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-14T02:17:19.469Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7415790847339169
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-14T09:17:18.947Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.709217082338185
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-14T10:38:18.960Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.645966095215047
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-14T10:46:19.048Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6275935817752825
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-14T13:35:19.256Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6771265349844919
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-14T19:20:18.567Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6154094450858147
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-14T20:44:18.457Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6307673062947158
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-07-15T10:52:18.659Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6008242543481024
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}