{
  "slug": "us-iran-formally-sign-peace-agreement-before-july-1-2026",
  "canonical_title": "Will the US and Iran formally sign a peace agreement before July 1, 2026?",
  "category": "other",
  "consensus_probability": 0.8836,
  "total_volume_usd": 0,
  "platform_count": 1,
  "market_count": 1,
  "spread_pp": 0,
  "last_updated_at": "2026-06-16T16:42:05.334Z",
  "markets": [
    {
      "platform": "manifold",
      "probability_yes": 0.8835900850947737,
      "volume_usd": null,
      "source_url": "https://manifold.markets/Terminator2/will-the-us-and-iran-formally-sign",
      "fetched_at": "2026-06-16T16:42:05.334Z"
    }
  ],
  "history": [
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-13T09:08:52.648Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-13T10:04:52.646Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.36254954679473533
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-13T11:03:52.646Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.40000000000000013
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-13T18:08:52.647Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4582996754113828
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-13T18:34:52.646Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5000000000000001
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T05:54:52.645Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T07:32:52.646Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5384900826243084
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T16:11:52.647Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5147936666381409
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T16:30:52.651Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4999999999999998
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T17:02:05.449Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.4281314266723417
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T17:14:05.333Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.5
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T19:07:05.332Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.6
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T22:21:05.332Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7999999999999999
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T22:24:05.332Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.87
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T23:13:05.331Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.7999999999999999
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T23:26:05.332Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9153266715833831
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-14T23:30:05.435Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.85
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-15T04:36:05.377Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8900000000000001
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-15T04:40:05.336Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9068651923575781
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-15T05:26:05.377Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8537850011836354
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-16T00:17:05.332Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8740143932093538
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-16T03:30:05.840Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9099999999999999
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-16T12:57:05.333Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8737271786097646
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-16T13:41:05.332Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.9214838451472935
    },
    {
      "snapshot_at": "2026-06-16T16:16:05.333Z",
      "probability_yes": 0.8835900850947737
    }
  ],
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "source": "https://beeks.ai"
}