The Beeks Brief
Today's Market Digest
Thursday, August 6, 2026
What moved, what's diverging, what's closing — everything you need to know about prediction markets in under two minutes.
Biggest Movers (24h)
Rising
Falling
- Gemini 3.5 Pro June? -62.5pp 12%
- Will something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st? -37.1pp 13%
- Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday? -30.1pp 20%
- Will "The Brink Of War" earn more than $20M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend -25.3pp 7%
- Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year? -22.9pp 25%
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026? -21.9pp 39%
- El-Sayed comdemn or disavow Hasan Piker before midterms? -20.4pp 7%
- Will the average gas price in Indiana be greater than $3.9999 on Friday, August 7th? -18.1pp 6%
Spread Opportunities
Cross-platform gaps 3pp+
No significant spreads right now. Spreads appear when platforms disagree by 3+ pp.
They tend to emerge after breaking news.
Closing This Week
Resolution coming- Free Lottery (black hole in universe) closes today 69%
- Mostbet Bangladesh - Leading Sports Betting & Live Casino Site closes today 50%
- Will Planet Fitness report 21.60 million or more total members in its Q2 2026 earnings release? closes today 55%
- BH999 Bangladesh | Best Online Betting & Casino Platform closes tomorrow 50%
- Will the podium of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes be Demi, Marlen, Kasia in some order? closes tomorrow 51%
- Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by election? closes tomorrow 89%
- Will the Swift Boost Mission be a success ? closes tomorrow 50%
- Will Bitcoin close daily candle above $66,000 on August 6? closes tomorrow 60%
Highest Volume Right Now
Most liquid markets- #1 Will the player that scores the first TD in the HoF game also score a TD in the regular season? — 46%
- #2 Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027? — 55%
- #3 MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Toronto Blue Jays OR will the 3-game series total 25 or more runs? — 53%
- #4 Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027? — 66%
- #5 Will BioAge's BGE-102 achieve its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial before January 1, 2028? — 52%
- #6 Will something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st? — 13%
- #7 Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? — 56%
- #8 Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? — 34%
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