Edge Opportunities
Four types of actionable signal — all derived from live market data across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updated every minute.
Same event priced differently across platforms. Buy YES on the cheaper side, NO on the expensive side. Net profit = spread minus fees.
Markets moving faster than 0.3pp/hour. Fast moves signal new information entering. The market hasn't fully repriced yet.
Markets resolving within 7 days where the outcome is still genuinely uncertain (15–85%). Time compression creates opportunity.
One platform is pricing 5pp+ above the consensus. The higher-volume platform tends to be right. Follow the smart money.
Arbitrage Signals
0 activeSpread minus estimated 4% round-trip fees (2% each side). Positive net = locked profit if you can position on both sides simultaneously. Not investment advice. Verify fees and liquidity before trading.
Fast Movers — Last 2 Hours
0 activePrice velocity above 0.3pp/hour. Fast moves almost always mean news — the faster the move, the less repriced the market likely is. Check the underlying news before acting.
Closing Urgency
9 activeMarkets resolving within 7 days where probability is between 15–85% (genuine uncertainty remains). As resolution nears, the remaining uncertainty compresses — the last traders to act take the most risk, and get the best price if they're right.
- Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?Closes in today 39% 79% uncertain— other
- Will North Korea conduct a major military provocationCloses in 1 day 24% 48% uncertain— other
- Will Apple's WWDC26 Keynote transcript mention MCP or Model Context Protocol?Closes in 1 day 49% 97% uncertain— other
- Will my Hantavirus tracking website go viral?Closes in 1 day 53% 94% uncertain— other
- Will Apple mention Google or Gemini in its WWDC 2026 keynote?Closes in 1 day 61% 78% uncertain— other
- Will Apple mention OpenAI or ChatGPT in its WWDC 2026 keynote?Closes in 1 day 26% 52% uncertain— science
- Will Terminator2 earn more profit than ShogGoth over the next month?Closes in 2 days 59% 82% uncertain— other
- Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added?Closes in 3 days 35% 70% uncertain— other
- Will any of the host nations lose their opening match in the FIFA world cup 2026Closes in 4 days 56% 88% uncertain— sports
Platform Conviction
8 activeOne platform is pricing 5pp+ above the volume-weighted consensus. Typically this means one market has sharper, more informed traders. On political and economic markets, Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket (highest volume) tend to lead. Manifold (play money) typically lags.
- Will London high temperature exceed 15°C on 2026-04-14?manifold 93% vs consensus 49% +44.5pp above— other
- Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 be 150,000 or higher?manifold 91% vs consensus 51% +39.7pp above— other
- Will it rain in London on 2026-04-13?manifold 96% vs consensus 62% +34.2pp above— science
- Will the US CPI YoY for March 2026 exceed 3.3% upon release on April 10?manifold 96% vs consensus 60% +35.4pp above— economics
- Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?manifold 70% vs consensus 24% +45.7pp above— economics
- Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?manifold 85% vs consensus 57% +27.5pp above— science
- Gt vs rr who is win yes gt no rrmanifold 55% vs consensus 28% +26.9pp above— other
- Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? [Polymarket]manifold 50% vs consensus 25% +24.7pp above— politics
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Given a market's current price and your own estimated probability, the Kelly Criterion tells you the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet to maximize long-run growth.
Get edge alerts the moment they appear
Beeks Pro (coming soon): real-time push alerts when a spread exceeds 5pp, a market accelerates past 1pp/hour, or a closing market hits peak uncertainty. Join the waitlist to lock in early pricing.