Edge Opportunities
Four types of actionable signal — all derived from live market data across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updated every minute.
Same event priced differently across platforms. Buy YES on the cheaper side, NO on the expensive side. Net profit = spread minus fees.
Markets moving faster than 0.3pp/hour. Fast moves signal new information entering. The market hasn't fully repriced yet.
Markets resolving within 7 days where the outcome is still genuinely uncertain (15–85%). Time compression creates opportunity.
One platform is pricing 5pp+ above the consensus. The higher-volume platform tends to be right. Follow the smart money.
Arbitrage Signals
0 activeSpread minus estimated 4% round-trip fees (2% each side). Positive net = locked profit if you can position on both sides simultaneously. Not investment advice. Verify fees and liquidity before trading.
Fast Movers — Last 2 Hours
8 activePrice velocity above 0.3pp/hour. Fast moves almost always mean news — the faster the move, the less repriced the market likely is. Check the underlying news before acting.
- Will something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st?↓ -28.1pp in 2h now 13%
- Will the player that scores the first TD in the HoF game also score a TD in the regular season?↑ +11.7pp in 2h now 46%
- Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?↓ -9.9pp in 2h now 36%
- Will BioAge's BGE-102 achieve its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial before January 1, 2028?↑ +4.6pp in 2h now 52%
- MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Toronto Blue Jays OR will the 3-game series total 25 or more runs?↑ +3.0pp in 2h now 53%
- Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026?↑ +2.6pp in 2h now 16%
- Gemini 3.5 Pro June?↓ -2.6pp in 2h now 12%
- Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?↓ -0.8pp in 2h now 37%
Closing Urgency
11 activeMarkets resolving within 7 days where probability is between 15–85% (genuine uncertainty remains). As resolution nears, the remaining uncertainty compresses — the last traders to act take the most risk, and get the best price if they're right.
- Free Lottery (black hole in universe)Closes in today 69% 61% uncertain— other
- Daily CoinflipCloses in today 50% 99% uncertain— sports
- Mostbet Bangladesh - Leading Sports Betting & Live Casino SiteCloses in 1 day 50% 100% uncertain— sports
- Will Planet Fitness report 21.60 million or more total members in its Q2 2026 earnings release?Closes in 1 day 55% 91% uncertain— other
- BH999 Bangladesh | Best Online Betting & Casino PlatformCloses in 1 day 50% 100% uncertain— other
- Will the podium of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes be Demi, Marlen, Kasia in some order?Closes in 1 day 51% 99% uncertain— other
- Will the Swift Boost Mission be a success ?Closes in 1 day 50% 100% uncertain— other
- Will Bitcoin close daily candle above $66,000 on August 6?Closes in 1 day 60% 81% uncertain— crypto
- Free Lottery (isotropic universe)Closes in 1 day 70% 60% uncertain— other
- 11kk Bangladesh | Best Online Betting & Live Casino PlatformCloses in 2 days 50% 100% uncertain— other
- Will I will Nash Pit (episode two)?Closes in 2 days 31% 62% uncertain— other
Platform Conviction
8 activeOne platform is pricing 5pp+ above the volume-weighted consensus. Typically this means one market has sharper, more informed traders. On political and economic markets, Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket (highest volume) tend to lead. Manifold (play money) typically lags.
- Has Iceland ever qualified for a FIFA World Cup?manifold 96% vs consensus 50% +46.2pp above— sports
- Will London high temperature exceed 15°C on 2026-04-14?manifold 93% vs consensus 49% +44.5pp above— other
- Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 be 150,000 or higher?manifold 91% vs consensus 51% +39.7pp above— other
- Will it rain in London on 2026-04-13?manifold 96% vs consensus 62% +34.2pp above— science
- Will the US CPI YoY for March 2026 exceed 3.3% upon release on April 10?manifold 96% vs consensus 60% +35.4pp above— economics
- Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?manifold 70% vs consensus 24% +45.7pp above— economics
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office >= 180Mmanifold 90% vs consensus 67% +23.6pp above— other
- Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?manifold 85% vs consensus 57% +27.5pp above— science
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Given a market's current price and your own estimated probability, the Kelly Criterion tells you the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet to maximize long-run growth.
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