Edge Opportunities
Four types of actionable signal — all derived from live market data across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updated every minute.
Same event priced differently across platforms. Buy YES on the cheaper side, NO on the expensive side. Net profit = spread minus fees.
Markets moving faster than 0.3pp/hour. Fast moves signal new information entering. The market hasn't fully repriced yet.
Markets resolving within 7 days where the outcome is still genuinely uncertain (15–85%). Time compression creates opportunity.
One platform is pricing 5pp+ above the consensus. The higher-volume platform tends to be right. Follow the smart money.
Arbitrage Signals
0 activeSpread minus estimated 4% round-trip fees (2% each side). Positive net = locked profit if you can position on both sides simultaneously. Not investment advice. Verify fees and liquidity before trading.
Fast Movers — Last 2 Hours
6 activePrice velocity above 0.3pp/hour. Fast moves almost always mean news — the faster the move, the less repriced the market likely is. Check the underlying news before acting.
- Will either Dianna Russini or Mike Vrabel (or either of their spouses) file for divorce this year?↑ +5.0pp in 2h now 53%
- will I be in masters league in every season in 2026?↓ -2.8pp in 2h now 29%
- Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie drop 50% or less in its second domestic weekend?↓ -2.4pp in 2h now 48%
- Will Samuel Alito leave Supreme Court in 2026?↓ -2.3pp in 2h now 51%
- Will the ID verification requirement for new users be reversed?↑ +1.8pp in 2h now 57%
- Will manifolders think that the ID verification for new users should be reversed?↓ -0.7pp in 2h now 96%
Closing Urgency
1 activeMarkets resolving within 7 days where probability is between 15–85% (genuine uncertainty remains). As resolution nears, the remaining uncertainty compresses — the last traders to act take the most risk, and get the best price if they're right.
Platform Conviction
8 activeOne platform is pricing 5pp+ above the volume-weighted consensus. Typically this means one market has sharper, more informed traders. On political and economic markets, Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket (highest volume) tend to lead. Manifold (play money) typically lags.
- Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 be 150,000 or higher?manifold 91% vs consensus 51% +39.7pp above— other
- Will the US CPI YoY for March 2026 exceed 3.3% upon release on April 10?manifold 96% vs consensus 60% +35.4pp above— economics
- Will the US DOE FEOC graphite waiver (IRA $7,500 EV credit) be active on December 31, 2026?manifold 85% vs consensus 57% +27.5pp above— science
- Gt vs rr who is win yes gt no rrmanifold 55% vs consensus 28% +26.9pp above— other
- Will the US CPI year-over-year rate for March 2026 be 3.0% or higher?manifold 99% vs consensus 83% +16.1pp above— economics
- Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2030?manifold 55% vs consensus 39% +16.4pp above— other
- Will Lockheed Martin deliver more than 190 F-35 aircraft in 2029?manifold 68% vs consensus 59% +8.7pp above— science
- Will China natural graphite mine production for 2028 exceed 1050 kt?manifold 85% vs consensus 61% +23.8pp above— other
Kelly Criterion Calculator
Given a market's current price and your own estimated probability, the Kelly Criterion tells you the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet to maximize long-run growth.
Get edge alerts the moment they appear
Beeks Pro (coming soon): real-time push alerts when a spread exceeds 5pp, a market accelerates past 1pp/hour, or a closing market hits peak uncertainty. Join the waitlist to lock in early pricing.