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Will China July 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?

⚡ 16.0pp spread
50% Consensus YES
Platforms 1
Total Volume $0
Cross-platform spread 16.0 pp
Resolves 2027-09-30
manifold 50% manifold 57% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 41% manifold 43% manifold 50% manifold 52% manifold 44% manifold 50% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52%
Platform Yes No Volume Last seen Link
Manifold 50.0% 50.0% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 56.9% 43.1% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 41.0% 59.0% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 43.0% 57.0% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 50.0% 50.0% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 43.8% 56.2% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 50.0% 50.0% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Manifold 52.4% 47.6% — 04:23 UTC View →
Probability history, most recent 30 days

What do these odds mean?

As of 2026-04-10 04:23 UTC, prediction markets are pricing Will China July 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes? at 50%. The highest reading is 56.9% on manifold, while the lowest is 41.0% on manifold — a spread of 16.0 percentage points. Total volume across 1 platform(s): $0.

How to read cross-platform spreads

When two platforms price the same event meaningfully differently, it usually means one of three things: liquidity is thin on one side, fee structures are pushing a spread, or traders on one platform have information the other lacks. Spreads larger than 5 percentage points on events with over $50K in volume often resolve toward the higher-volume platform's price.

About this data

Beeks.ai aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updates run every minute. Consensus probability is a volume-weighted average across all matched markets. Historical snapshots are stored for calibration analysis.

Last updated: 2026-04-10 04:23:10 UTC · Download JSON

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