Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Last seen | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold | 64.6% | 35.4% | — | 23:14 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 22.0% | 78.0% | — | 06:03 UTC | View → |
What do these odds mean?
As of 2026-07-01 23:14 UTC, prediction markets are pricing Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026? at 65%. The highest reading is 64.6% on manifold, while the lowest is 64.6% on manifold — a spread of 0.0 percentage points. Total volume across 1 platform(s): $0.
How to read cross-platform spreads
When two platforms price the same event meaningfully differently, it usually means one of three things: liquidity is thin on one side, fee structures are pushing a spread, or traders on one platform have information the other lacks. Spreads larger than 5 percentage points on events with over $50K in volume often resolve toward the higher-volume platform's price.
About this data
Beeks.ai aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updates run every minute. Consensus probability is a volume-weighted average across all matched markets. Historical snapshots are stored for calibration analysis.
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