B Beeks.ai

Will Israel attack Iraq in December 2026?

49% Consensus YES
Platforms 1
Total Volume $0
Cross-platform spread 1.6 pp
Resolves 2034-12-31
manifold 17% manifold 27% manifold 23% manifold 22% manifold 30% manifold 30% manifold 26% manifold 50% manifold 47% manifold 26% manifold 28% manifold 23% manifold 50% manifold 48% manifold 26% manifold 16%
Platform Yes No Volume Last seen Link
Manifold 16.7% 83.3% — 02:23 UTC View →
Manifold 27.0% 73.0% — 02:23 UTC View →
Manifold 23.0% 77.0% — 14:05 UTC View →
Manifold 21.9% 78.1% — 02:23 UTC View →
Manifold 30.0% 70.0% — 15:30 UTC View →
Manifold 29.8% 70.2% — 02:23 UTC View →
Manifold 25.9% 74.1% — 02:23 UTC View →
Manifold 49.5% 50.5% — 19:31 UTC View →
Manifold 47.1% 52.9% — 19:31 UTC View →
Manifold 25.7% 74.3% — 14:05 UTC View →
Manifold 27.6% 72.4% — 02:23 UTC View →
Manifold 22.8% 77.2% — 02:23 UTC View →
Manifold 50.0% 50.0% — 20:13 UTC View →
Manifold 48.4% 51.6% — 20:13 UTC View →
Manifold 25.7% 74.3% — 14:05 UTC View →
Manifold 16.4% 83.5% — 02:23 UTC View →
No history yet — first few snapshots pending.
Probability history, most recent 30 days

What do these odds mean?

As of 2026-05-13 20:13 UTC, prediction markets are pricing Will Israel attack Iraq in December 2026? at 49%. The highest reading is 50.0% on manifold, while the lowest is 48.4% on manifold — a spread of 1.6 percentage points. Total volume across 1 platform(s): $0.

How to read cross-platform spreads

When two platforms price the same event meaningfully differently, it usually means one of three things: liquidity is thin on one side, fee structures are pushing a spread, or traders on one platform have information the other lacks. Spreads larger than 5 percentage points on events with over $50K in volume often resolve toward the higher-volume platform's price.

About this data

Beeks.ai aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updates run every minute. Consensus probability is a volume-weighted average across all matched markets. Historical snapshots are stored for calibration analysis.

Last updated: 2026-05-13 20:13:01 UTC · Download JSON

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