Will Non-Republicans hold at least 53% of House seats on any given day by July 27, 2027? (7/27/27)

48% Consensus YES
Platforms 1
Total Volume $0
Cross-platform spread 4.2 pp
Resolves 2027-08-07
manifold 49% manifold 68% manifold 50% manifold 50% manifold 40% manifold 43% manifold 46% manifold 64%
Platform Yes No Volume Last seen Link
Manifold 49.1% 50.9% 22:41 UTC View →
Manifold 67.6% 32.4% 16:16 UTC View →
Manifold 50.0% 50.0% 13:16 UTC View →
Manifold 50.0% 50.0% 16:23 UTC View →
Manifold 39.9% 60.1% 12:36 UTC View →
Manifold 43.0% 57.0% 14:23 UTC View →
Manifold 45.8% 54.2% 13:16 UTC View →
Manifold 63.7% 36.3% 16:23 UTC View →
Probability history, most recent 30 days

What do these odds mean?

As of 2026-08-06 13:16 UTC, prediction markets are pricing Will Non-Republicans hold at least 53% of House seats on any given day by July 27, 2027? (7/27/27) at 48%. The highest reading is 50.0% on manifold, while the lowest is 45.8% on manifold — a spread of 4.2 percentage points. Total volume across 1 platform(s): $0.

How to read cross-platform spreads

When two platforms price the same event meaningfully differently, it usually means one of three things: liquidity is thin on one side, fee structures are pushing a spread, or traders on one platform have information the other lacks. Spreads larger than 5 percentage points on events with over $50K in volume often resolve toward the higher-volume platform's price.

About this data

Beeks.ai aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updates run every minute. Consensus probability is a volume-weighted average across all matched markets. Historical snapshots are stored for calibration analysis.

Last updated: 2026-08-06 13:16:33 UTC · Download JSON

News & context

Your edge calculator

Enter your own probability estimate to see expected value and recommended position size using the Kelly Criterion.

EV per $1:  ·  ¼ Kelly:  ·  Side: