How is the consensus probability calculated?

Consensus probability is the volume-weighted average YES probability across all matched markets on Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Markets without reported volume receive equal weight.

Why do prices differ between platforms?

Platforms have different fee structures, user bases, and liquidity pools, which creates small price differences even on the same event. Current spread: 0.0 percentage points.

Are prediction markets accurate?

Prediction markets have historically been well-calibrated for political and economic events, often outperforming traditional polling. Accuracy depends on liquidity and how close the market is to resolution.

Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2027?

Q: What are prediction markets saying about Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2027??

As of the latest update, prediction markets are pricing Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2027? at 52% across 1 platforms (manifold). Total volume: $0.

Platforms 1

Total Volume $0

Cross-platform spread 0.0 pp

Resolves 2027-12-31

manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 50% manifold 52% manifold 50% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 50% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 50% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 57% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52% manifold 52%

Platform	Yes	No	Volume	Last seen	Link
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	16:23 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	12:36 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	04:23 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	15:45 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	13:34 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	07:42 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	16:25 UTC	View →
Manifold	50.0%	50.0%	—	16:50 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	05:06 UTC	View →
Manifold	50.0%	50.0%	—	12:23 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	18:39 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	12:34 UTC	View →
Manifold	50.0%	50.0%	—	06:07 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	14:01 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	18:39 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	10:54 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	04:23 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	07:17 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	16:44 UTC	View →
Manifold	50.0%	50.0%	—	17:58 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	14:04 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	12:35 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	13:00 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	16:17 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	18:09 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	12:08 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	09:59 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	15:24 UTC	View →
Manifold	56.9%	43.1%	—	10:51 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	04:23 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	12:02 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	04:23 UTC	View →
Manifold	52.4%	47.6%	—	18:39 UTC	View →

Probability history, most recent 30 days

What do these odds mean?

As of 2026-04-10 18:39 UTC, prediction markets are pricing Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 50 USD/kg on December 31, 2027? at 52%. The highest reading is 52.4% on manifold, while the lowest is 52.4% on manifold — a spread of 0.0 percentage points. Total volume across 1 platform(s): $0.

How to read cross-platform spreads

When two platforms price the same event meaningfully differently, it usually means one of three things: liquidity is thin on one side, fee structures are pushing a spread, or traders on one platform have information the other lacks. Spreads larger than 5 percentage points on events with over $50K in volume often resolve toward the higher-volume platform's price.

About this data

Beeks.ai aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updates run every minute. Consensus probability is a volume-weighted average across all matched markets. Historical snapshots are stored for calibration analysis.

Last updated: 2026-04-10 18:39:39 UTC · Download JSON

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