Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Last seen | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold | 42.3% | 57.7% | — | 01:45 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 52.4% | 47.6% | — | 17:16 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 5.0% | 95.0% | — | 23:08 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 45.0% | 55.0% | — | 08:29 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 39.3% | 60.7% | — | 17:15 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 37.2% | 62.8% | — | 05:47 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 59.0% | 41.0% | — | 18:00 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 46.6% | 53.4% | — | 01:38 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 80.1% | 19.9% | — | 22:04 UTC | View → |
What do these odds mean?
As of 2026-08-11 01:38 UTC, prediction markets are pricing Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket] at 47%. The highest reading is 46.6% on manifold, while the lowest is 46.6% on manifold — a spread of 0.0 percentage points. Total volume across 1 platform(s): $0.
How to read cross-platform spreads
When two platforms price the same event meaningfully differently, it usually means one of three things: liquidity is thin on one side, fee structures are pushing a spread, or traders on one platform have information the other lacks. Spreads larger than 5 percentage points on events with over $50K in volume often resolve toward the higher-volume platform's price.
About this data
Beeks.ai aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updates run every minute. Consensus probability is a volume-weighted average across all matched markets. Historical snapshots are stored for calibration analysis.
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