Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?
| Platform | Yes | No | Volume | Last seen | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manifold | 69.9% | 30.1% | — | 15:13 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 64.5% | 35.5% | — | 15:47 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 52.0% | 48.0% | — | 23:08 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 46.2% | 53.8% | — | 13:53 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 68.3% | 31.7% | — | 15:33 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 33.0% | 67.0% | — | 15:03 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 45.8% | 54.2% | — | 13:53 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 50.1% | 49.9% | — | 15:55 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 66.6% | 33.4% | — | 15:13 UTC | View → |
| Manifold | 45.0% | 55.0% | — | 15:03 UTC | View → |
What do these odds mean?
As of 2026-08-03 15:55 UTC, prediction markets are pricing Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again? at 50%. The highest reading is 50.1% on manifold, while the lowest is 50.1% on manifold — a spread of 0.0 percentage points. Total volume across 1 platform(s): $0.
How to read cross-platform spreads
When two platforms price the same event meaningfully differently, it usually means one of three things: liquidity is thin on one side, fee structures are pushing a spread, or traders on one platform have information the other lacks. Spreads larger than 5 percentage points on events with over $50K in volume often resolve toward the higher-volume platform's price.
About this data
Beeks.ai aggregates prediction market data from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Updates run every minute. Consensus probability is a volume-weighted average across all matched markets. Historical snapshots are stored for calibration analysis.
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