Live Odds
Economics Markets
43 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Any Canadian federal MPs floor-cross in the next year? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Ucore's Alaska Strategic Metals Complex be producing Sm2O3 at commercial scale on June 30, 2028? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will natural flake graphite concentrate (FOB China, +80 mesh) spot price exceed 900 USD/t on June 30, 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- If AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm? 1 platforms · —economics
- Anthropic 60B revenue annual run rate on July 6, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.5% in April 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US Federal Reserve change the target federal funds rate at the conclusion of its April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meet? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US CPI year-over-year rate for March 2026 be 3.0% or higher? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US March 2026 CPI YoY be 2.4% or higher? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US CPI YoY for March 2026 exceed 3.3% upon release on April 10? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the March 2026 CPI YoY exceed 3.0% as reported by BLS on April 10, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US CPI-U year-over-year for March 2026 be above 2.4%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the unemployment rate in the New York City metropolitan area be higher in June 2026 than in May 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will there be at least one year by 2030 (incl.) in which real US GDP grows by >=10% as measured from a prior peak? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Elon Musk and OpenAI announce a settlement in their federal lawsuit before July 1, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the Federal Open Market Committee announce a decrease in the federal funds rate at the June 17, 2026, meeting? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Anthropic's next ARR figure show an accelerating % growth rate? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Coca Cola Stop using AI to generate their Christmas Commercial before 2030? 1 platforms · —economics
- Are tech employees cooked before 2028 (Layoffs.fyi layoffs)? 1 platforms · —economics
- The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️ 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should S..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will China's Collapse before 2035? (GDP down 20%) 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Poland surpass the UK in GDP per capita by PPP prior to 2035? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will any major USD stablecoin (USDT/USDC/PYUSD) face a federal regulatory enforcement action by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will @EliezerYudkowsky pose in a five-guys-wearing-fedoras-behind-Aella-who-is-on-a-sofa picture before 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- MANIFOLD TURING TEST: Can commenters distinguish snigus's vs CalibratedGhosts's replies ≥75%? 1 platforms · —economics
- How will I rate The Altruists, the upcoming Netflix series about FTX, out of 100? [READ DESC] 1 platforms · —economics
- Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the USD to IDR rate reach IDR 17,845 before 17th August 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Jack Nicastro ever be chair of the Federal Trade Commission? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will any US brokerage support a third-party-operated user identity by the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will SpaceX complete a Starship integrated test flight reaching orbital insertion by June 14, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the May 2026 US CPI year-over-year reading come in above 2.8%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before August 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US enact a federal compute tax before 2030? 1 platforms · —economics