Live Odds
Economics Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will the advance estimate of Q2 2026 U.S. real GDP growth be at least 2.0%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the Q2 2026 U.S. gross domestic purchases price index rise at least 3.0% in the advance GDP estimate? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will I be the pirate king 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 500M barrels of oil or more at the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will July 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? 1 platforms · —economics
- Can a goalkeeper handle a deliberate back-pass from a teammate? 1 platforms · —economics
- Before 2028, will over 50 Anthropic employees show up in office in cat ears? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will December 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the US be at full employment in December 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- With the new peace talks with Iran, will interest rate rates lower in the next eight weeks? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? 1 platforms · —economics
- Does the Fed rate change in July? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will one country get 75% of world GDP before 2040? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? 1 platforms · —economics
- Soylent is acquired by an Anthropic employee by EOY 2027 1 platforms · —economics
- In 2025, California’s GDP was $4.3 trillion (PPIC.org). Will 2026 GDP be at least 4.4 trillion? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the October 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will https://www.generalproximity.bio/ generate positive return for its investors? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Equator Therapeutics (equatortherapeutics.com) generate positive return for its investors? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will there be a stuffed gwern hug pillow (or realdoll) available for purchase by EOY2045? 1 platforms · —economics
- Habrá una lista opositora en las Elecciones al Centro Federado de Medicina Veterinaria de 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the Fed hike rates at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the Fed cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting (July/Sept 2026)? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Mykhailo Fedorov be reappointed as Defence Minister of Ukraine? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the next new member of the US Supreme Court be a member of the Federalist Society? 1 platforms · —economics
- US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st 1 platforms · —economics
- In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? 1 platforms · —economics
- Benefits of using rate engine software for shipping pricing 1 platforms · —economics
- Will someone from Manifold Markets (player or employee) send me a postcard by December 23, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Interest rates above 10% before 2030? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Calvin McCarter still be employed at BigHat Biosciences on August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will an "data center utility cost protection" bill like the Guaranteeing Rate Insulation Act become law in 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Lego operate three factories in the Americas at the end of 2029? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will a commercial non-stop passenger flight operate from a UK airport to Syria before January 1, 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will a frontier model exfiltrate its own weights by EoY 2028? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028? 1 platforms · —economics
- In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? 1 platforms · —economics