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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Great Pyramid of Giza Big Void be explored in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will ICE be renamed as NICE in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- JD Vance Receives Cosmetic Jaw or Face Surgery Before 2028 1 platforms · —other
- will i keep my gf by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The paper that killed deep learning theory" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby finish in under 2:02.00? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get kicked out of the singing workshop tomorrow 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran's food stockpile run out within 3 months? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mr. Wengel give Arjun Harkar an A in AP Euro 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" gross greater than $102.5M in its domestic opening weekend? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222 1 platforms · —other
- Will codex or Claude code be shown to mass deleting someone's hard drive if it suspects biorisk or illegal activity? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Couriway finish his 100k run challenge? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I restrict my food-buying behaviour in line with this market in May? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the MN Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche in the second round of the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ad Brothers beat Mochi? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I stay in Masters League this season? 1 platforms · —other
- Will ClankerView get 100 paying users in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Android 17 be officially released to consumers by October 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Google announce Gemini 4 at I/O 2026 (May 19-20)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of May 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get 90%+ in all my courses this semester? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Network Ten (Australia), The Cheap Seats, mention Manifold Markets before the end of June 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a movie based on the game R.E.P.O. be released before EO 2035? 1 platforms · —other
- S&P500 closes at 7,500.00 before End Of May 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I make IMO in 2028 1 platforms · —other
- Will MNX hire a backend developer before Manifest? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "On today's panel with Bernie Sanders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Red vs. Blue button (Free Mana, resolves N/A) 1 platforms · —other
- Will US Average Gas Prices rise or fall 10 cents in one day in May 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kamala announce a run in 2028 1 platforms · —other
- Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season 1 platforms · —other
- Will the 47fucb4r8curb4fc8f8r4bfic8r vs. Eliezer debate be posted publicly before June? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mr. Beast run a red button vs. blue button video by the end of the year? 1 platforms · —other
- will i get a medal at the IPO 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Monero trade below $300 during May? 1 platforms · —other
- Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Not a Paper: "Frontier Lab CEOs are Capable o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Jose Luis Ricon be part of a 501(c)(3) organization by EOY2035? 1 platforms · —other
- Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will Walpurgisnacht: Rising be released after August 28th 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- How likely is the farm bill to pass with the save our bacon act provision? 1 platforms · —other
- Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026? 1 platforms · —other