Live Odds
Other Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran agree to suspend uranium enrichment for at least 12 months by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will another OPEC member announce intent to leave the cartel by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a super-injunction relating to Sir Keir Starmer be revealed in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Slovakia win the ice hockey world championship 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description) 1 platforms · —other
- Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Quick Paper Review: "There Will Be a Scientif..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Artemis III launches before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get hired by Walmart? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get a GF in the year of 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran physically hand over its 'nuclear dust' / enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will George R. R. Martin's next "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Barcelona beat Real Madrid in the El Clasico 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Apple stop selling the $599 MacBook Neo SKU before the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Natural Language Autoencoders Produce Unsuper..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I break a bone before the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be another Killer Klowns movie released by the end of 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will this market close between 60% - 70% 1 platforms · —other
- Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The purposeful drunkard" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Are prediction markets going to play a noticeable role in the Conclave 1492 simulation in June? 1 platforms · —other
- Will OKLO reach $200 by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "x-risk-themed" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my prediction market idea win? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş ever be World Chess Champion? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be at least one red card in PSG Arsenal Champions League Final? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifold post another investor update before a full year has passed? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my friend go on a date by the end of May? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I complete 2 tasks every day for this week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Claude replace Grok on X in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my matcha drinking tall Tate Mcrae obsessed abb friend pull anyone at MOP 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- @MarySmith attends Manifest '26? 1 platforms · —other
- will i get gold at amm 2026 1 platforms · —other