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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will @E142 write a comment asking @DottedCalculator a question on this market (and @DottedCalculator responds)? 1 platforms · —other
- If Iran’s regime falls by Dec 31 2027, will the trigger be external? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Euphoria be renewed for Season 4? 1 platforms · —other
- Arsenal vs PSG, Champions League Grand Final 1 platforms · —other
- Will Homelander Die in The Boys? 1 platforms · —other
- Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10] 1 platforms · —other
- Will ekkolapto come to one of https://semf.org.es/events/all.html in 2026/2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9] 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Supreme Court uphold the 5th Circuit ruling restricting mifepristone? 1 platforms · —other
- If ASI is achieved before Manifest 2027, will Manifest 2027 occur? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana? 1 platforms · —other
- Will US datacenter electricity demand exceed 6% of total US electricity by year-end 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic become profitable this year? 1 platforms · —other
- US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky have a debate for >$10k before EOY 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a physical protest at Roblox headquarters before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mr. Doodle complete his 1 million doodles project within 8 years? 1 platforms · —other
- Will QCOM stock reach $300 by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I try Nastent for a period of more than 1 month in 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will this market appear on a mug? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a video featuring a collaboration between Corridor Crew and Red Letter Media be posted before the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Any new Claude Model Before May 16th? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5) 1 platforms · —other
- Will @subquadratic 's SubQ "breakthrough" end up mattering in any meaningful way, in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Hearts win the Scottish league? 1 platforms · —other
- another @subquadratic twitter announcement about SubQ model family, in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- My current relationship lasts >6 months (1 Jan to 1 Jul 2026) 1 platforms · —other
- Notional prediction market volume >150bil on June 30? [Dune Prediction Market Dashboard] 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US impose 50% secondary tariffs on any Iran weapons supplier by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US sign a peace agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan before September 30, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US-Iran ceasefire be formally declared ended by US or Iran before July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Limitless Markets US approved as a DCM by the CFTC in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a Creepshow 4 movie be released by the end of 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I take a leave of absence? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "It's nice of you to worry about me, but I rea..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a bot win prize drawing this year? 1 platforms · —other
- F1: 2026 Canadian Grand Prix (Montreal) Mercedes Winner? 1 platforms · —other
- By 2032, will Peacock (the NBC streaming service) license Katy Perry’s “Peacock” for any official marketing material? 1 platforms · —other
- Will anyone between Dream or Drdonut step down as co-owner of MCPVP.com before August? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Paul Seixas defeat Tadej Pogacar in any race during the 2026 season? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my friend Aryan make ARML tb 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Onesh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Alcatraz transfer language passed by either chamber by end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- will I get a 5 on ap chemistry? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I qualify for the 2027 IMO TST cycle? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup 1 platforms · —other
- Will anybody win the Prize Drawings more than once in 2026? 1 platforms · —other