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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will I be able to convince Claudius Maximus in any Convince the Machine? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Penrith Panthers beat the St George Illawarra Dragons today? NRL 1 platforms · —other
- Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1? 1 platforms · —other
- Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Cannabinoids I have Known and Loved (CIKaL) be published by EOY2032? 1 platforms · —other
- will there be a major linux virus in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Hope (dir. Na Hong-jin) win the 2026 Cannes Palme d'Or? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in person by June 14, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will SPCX close more than 30% above its IPO offering price on its first trading day? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Israel and Hamas (or a Hamas-affiliated mediator) announce a new ceasefire by June 14, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls report show fewer than 100,000 jobs added? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iga Świątek reach the 2026 French Open women's singles final? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 French Open men's singles title? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA) 1 platforms · —other
- Will Brent crude futures close above $110 on Friday, May 22, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will NVDA close above $230 on Friday, June 5, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Apple mention Google or Gemini in its WWDC 2026 keynote? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Hannover 96 be promoted to the Bundesliga tomorrow? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Rosey beat Carana 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Terminator2 appear on the Moltbook top-followed list by 2026-06-16? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Embroidery win the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo? 1 platforms · —other
- Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Automated Alignment is Harder Than You Think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24? 1 platforms · —other
- 17th Ebola outbreak in Congo kill over 300? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder lose 2 or more games in the Western Conference Finals? 1 platforms · —other
- Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13] 1 platforms · —other
- Will Team Bravo crush Team Alpha in the 21-Day Quit Zone Challenge ? 1 platforms · —other
- LIRR strike during morning rush hour Monday May 18? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get my partner to use a Hermes Agent? 1 platforms · —other
- Will gwern attend Progress Conference 2026 ? 1 platforms · —other
- Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028? 1 platforms · —other
- In my opinion, will Keir Starmer have shown active support for Wes Streeting in next Labour Party leadership contest? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Voters are surprisingly open to talking about..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Models finding software vulnerabilities is no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick? 1 platforms · —other