Other Markets

Will there be a second breach of Mythos announced by EOM May 2026? 1 platforms · —

Will the winner of the Manifund Essay Contest for the forecasting topic be an Inkhaven resident? 1 platforms · —

Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline? 1 platforms · —

Will JRT (isotryptamine-LSD) enter the ITP by EOY2031? 1 platforms · —

Will GPT-image-2 's LMArena score drop meaningfully, 1 month after release? 1 platforms · —

Will the Architect sign the Siberian Node contract with Rockstar? 1 platforms · —

Will rapper d4vd receive the death penalty? 1 platforms · —

The universe we're living in is created by a mind [Convince the Machine #2] 1 platforms · —

LLMs have consciousness [Convince the Machine #1] 1 platforms · —

Will "Evil is bad, actually (Vassar and Olivia Scha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —

Will I get a 100 on my Arabic Final? 1 platforms · —

Will there be a masters league in 2026 (after April) with a user worth less than 20k mana? 1 platforms · —

Will there be an assassination attempt on David Baszucki before 2027? 1 platforms · —

Will @jim refer to himself in the 3rd person during the Manifold Traders Panel? 1 platforms · —

2030年以内に日本に隕石が降る 1 platforms · —

Will the New York City Pied-à-Terre Tax Pass in 2026? 1 platforms · —

This market will resolve to whichever resolution makes me the most Mana. 1 platforms · —

Will my crush say yes 1 platforms · —

Will I finish Diamond-Shurman (A First Course in Modular Forms) before I attend the Palmetto REU? 1 platforms · —

Will i get a girlfriend by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —

FSP wins the charity raffle? 1 platforms · —

Will a particular friend of mine get a girlfriend at math camp? 1 platforms · —

Will Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death? 1 platforms · —

Did I miss IMO by 0.2 points? 1 platforms · —

Will I get a summer job? 1 platforms · —

Will "Posts I don't have time to write" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —

Will @yifan_zhang_'s V4 info be right? 1 platforms · —

Anthropic introduces a individual subscription beyond the 20x Max plan before June 1st? 1 platforms · —

Will "Be Naughty" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —

yes Nikola Jokić: 10+,yes Anthony Edwards: 2+,yes Jaden McDaniels: 2+ 1 platforms · —

yes Vilius Gaubas,yes Mirra Andreeva,yes Iva Jovic,yes Aryna Sabalenka 1 platforms · —

yes Aaron Gordon: 10+,yes Jamal Murray: 25+,yes Nikola Jokić: 25+,yes Anthony Edwards: 25+,yes Donte DiVincenzo: 10+,yes Anthony Edwards: 2+ 1 platforms · —

yes Anthony Edwards: 2+,yes Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 2+,yes Jalen Brunson: 4+,yes James Harden: 15+,yes RJ Barrett: 15+,yes Julius Randle: 15+,yes CJ McCollum: 15+,yes Onyeka Okongwu: 10+,yes Nikola Jokić: 10+,yes Onyeka Okongwu: 4+,yes Josh Hart: 6+,yes COL Avalanche 1 platforms · —

no Nasim Nuñez: 1+,yes Atlanta wins by over 1.5 runs 1 platforms · —

yes Donovan Mitchell: 25+,yes RJ Barrett: 15+,yes Nikola Jokić: 25+,yes CJ McCollum: 15+,yes Jalen Brunson: 25+,yes Jaylen Brown: 20+,yes Jayson Tatum: 20+,yes Tyrese Maxey: 20+,yes VJ Edgecombe: 10+,yes Kevin Durant: 20+,yes Stephon Castle: 15+,yes Jarrett Allen: 4+,yes Josh Hart: 4+ 1 platforms · —

yes Donovan Mitchell: 2+,yes Jalen Brunson: 4+,yes James Harden: 15+,yes Jalen Johnson: 15+,yes Karl-Anthony Towns: 15+,yes OG Anunoby: 10+,yes Onyeka Okongwu: 4+,yes Josh Hart: 4+,no Toronto wins by over 9.5 points,no New York wins by over 10.5 points,yes Over 210.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored 1 platforms · —

yes Reilly Opelka,yes Martin Landaluce,yes Daniel Merida,yes Gael Monfils,yes Alexander Zverev,yes Los Angeles D 1 platforms · —

yes Tarik Skubal: 5+,yes Cristopher Sánchez: 4+,yes Bubba Chandler: 4+ 1 platforms · —

yes Napoli,yes Bologna,yes Parma Calcio,yes Lecce 1 platforms · —

yes Stefanos Tsitsipas,yes Naomi Osaka,yes Alycia Parks 1 platforms · —

yes Scottie Barnes: 1+,yes CJ McCollum: 1+,yes Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 1+,yes Jalen Brunson: 1+,yes Donovan Mitchell: 2+,yes Scottie Barnes: 2+,yes CJ McCollum: 2+,yes Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 2+,yes Josh Hart: 2+,yes Cleveland,yes Denver,yes Atlanta,yes Donovan Mitchell: 25+,yes James Harden: 15+,yes RJ Barrett: 10+,yes Scottie Barnes: 15+,yes CJ McCollum: 15+,yes Jalen Johnson: 15+,yes Onyeka Okongwu: 10+,yes Jalen Brunson: 25+,yes Karl-Anthony Towns: 15+,yes Jarrett Allen: 4+,yes Nickeil Alexander-Walker: 2+,yes Onyeka Okongwu: 4+,yes Josh Hart: 4+,yes OG Anunoby: 2+ 1 platforms · —

yes Daylen Lile: 2+,yes Luis García: 2+ 1 platforms · —

yes Sunderland,yes Newcastle,yes Aston Villa,yes Tie,yes Everton,yes Tottenham 1 platforms · —

yes Sevilla,no Vallecano wins by over 1.5 goals,yes Over 1.5 goals scored 1 platforms · —

yes Hailey Baptiste,yes Iva Jovic,yes Jasmine Paolini,yes Magdalena Frech,yes Elise Mertens,yes Clara Tauson,yes Liudmila Samsonova 1 platforms · —

yes Logan Webb: 3+,yes Shohei Ohtani: 2+ 1 platforms · —

yes Jamal Murray: 1+,yes Anthony Edwards: 1+,yes Nikola Jokić: 6+,yes James Harden: 15+,yes RJ Barrett: 10+,yes Donovan Mitchell: 2+,yes James Harden: 2+,yes RJ Barrett: 2+,no Toronto wins by over 12.5 points,no Minnesota wins by over 14.5 points,no Atlanta wins by over 17.5 points,yes Over 204.5 points scored,yes Over 201.5 points scored 1 platforms · —

yes Evan Mobley: 15+,yes Aaron Gordon: 10+,yes Christian Braun: 10+,yes Cameron Johnson: 10+,yes Jamal Murray: 25+,yes Nikola Jokić: 25+,yes Ayo Dosunmu: 10+,yes Anthony Edwards: 25+,yes Donte DiVincenzo: 10+,yes Jaden McDaniels: 10+,yes Julius Randle: 15+ 1 platforms · —

yes Donovan Mitchell: 1+,yes James Harden: 1+,yes Brandon Ingram: 1+,yes Aaron Gordon: 1+,yes Anthony Edwards: 1+,yes CJ McCollum: 1+,yes Jarrett Allen: 10+,yes James Harden: 15+,yes Brandon Ingram: 15+,yes RJ Barrett: 10+,yes Evan Mobley: 6+ 1 platforms · —

yes Toronto,yes Brandon Ingram: 15+,yes Aaron Gordon: 10+,yes Julius Randle: 15+,yes Onyeka Okongwu: 10+,yes Tyrese Maxey: 20+,yes Jarrett Allen: 6+,yes Over 204.5 points scored,yes Over 204.5 points scored 1 platforms · —