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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Dario Amodei still be CEO of Anthropic by the end of August 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026) 1 platforms · —other
- Sweet & Sour Showdown: Will Michigan Sweet be priced higher than Wyoming Sour crude oil on Juneteenth 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Truth Social be bought before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Будет ли фьючерс NASDAQ более 30800.00 22.06.2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will DELL close above $470 this week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Edwin S Kite be alive to see humanity become a kardashev level one civilization 1 platforms · —other
- Will Elon musk live to see humanity become a Kardashev 3 civilization? 1 platforms · —other
- GPT-5.6 Outperforms Claude Fable 5 on FrontierMath Tier 4? 1 platforms · —other
- Will eldar grow his dick by 5 cm by the end of June 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will cyan rewrite folk in rust by June 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Arlan get 1 million users by July 1st, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Leevoid go to the gym on the 21st of June 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Los Angeles AQI exceed 151 at least once between June 27 – July 3, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will NWS issue a new Beach Hazards Statement for the San Francisco Peninsula Coast between June 21 and June 26, 2026 1 platforms · —other
- July 26 (7/26/26) Will I be below 300 lbs. at my morning weigh-in? 314.2 today. 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The LLM shoggoth meme is weirder than you think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a single heat wave kill 10,000+ people in Texas within one week before 2032? 1 platforms · —other
- Will 10,000+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a new theatrical Star Trek movie be released on or before January 30, 2030 (1/30/30)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a Billy Bat anime, tv show, or movie released before the end of 2032? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Southern California experience snow this winter? 1 platforms · —other
- Will ≥ 25 people give me 100 or more mana before close date? 1 platforms · —other
- [API TEST] Manifold plugin integration test market 1 platforms · —other
- Will Callum Turner cheat on Dua Lipa? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a new war by the 1 of July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Guardian Angels: LLM Personalization for Prod..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- will x crack by the end of ross 1 platforms · —other
- Will Jose Luis Ricon ever summit Mulhacén? 1 platforms · —other
- will x have a significant other by the end of ross 1 platforms · —other
- Will BasedBeffJezos turn into a playable character in any Mechwarrior game like Mechwarrior 6 by 2040? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the S&P 500 index close below 4,800 points on any trading day between June 22 and July 10, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mr Beast pass Messi in amount of subscribers/followers before the world cup ends? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my Trader bonuses exceed 100,000 for the June 2026 season? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I publish my personal site/blog this month? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earn more than $230M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening we 1 platforms · —other
- Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will Andy Burnham run for Labour leader unchallenged? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Keir Starmer have a position in Andy Burnham's first cabinet? 1 platforms · —other
- WIIL I get first of my bronze league this week? 🩶 1 platforms · —other
- Will Elon Musk become a playable character in Mechwarrior 6 (or a mod)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the UK Government establish a dedicated immigration enforcement agency similar to US ICE by end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be convinced that an X user was banned from X for using Birdclaw in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the World Cup winners of this century finish first in their groups? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Google Can't Math Parsecs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will GPT-5.6 beat Fable 5? 1 platforms · —other