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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will I run further than @draaglom in July? 1 platforms · —other
- Will France beat Paraguay by 2+ goals in regulation on July 4, 2026 (7/4/26)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will silver close above $60 at the end of July, 2026 based on SI=F ticker on Yahoo Finance ($60.82 at market creation) 1 platforms · —other
- Will Sony release a new Playstation game on a disc in the year 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kim Dotcom be extradited to the USA by the end of 2027> 1 platforms · —other
- Will GPT-5.6-Sol score at least 59 on the Artificial Analysis Index? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The consequences of locking intelligence away..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Mitch McConnell alive all of July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Vinfast EV plant in North Carolina, USA produce vehicles by the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Model access for third-parties — it's a big deal!" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I qualify for RMM 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Mexico V England: world cup 2026 round of 16 1 platforms · —other
- Will Shane Gu live over 1000 years? 1 platforms · —other
- Attempt #2! Will I create a new YouTube Channel by 7/10/26? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Brazil lead Norway at the end of 90 minutes (including stoppage time) on July 5, 2026 (7/5/26)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Your Model Organisms Might Be Fried" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will this market have under 100 traders by the end of August? 1 platforms · —other
- Does a World Cup host country make the semi-final round? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be an Pupil on CF before August? (sorry the previous one was wrong) 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be an Expert on CF before August? (sorry the previous one was wrong) 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic's closing price be greater than its opening price on its first trading day? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a team from outside UEFA or CONMEBOL reach the 2026 World Cup Semifinals? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a significant antipope by EOY 2040? 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone manipulate the weather to manipulate a weather market? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter? 1 platforms · —other
- Will PredictPanda reach 100 users by the end of July? 1 platforms · —other
- Will GTA 7 be announced before 2036? 1 platforms · —other
- Can Manifold solve this problem? 1 platforms · —other
- will the banff vlog be released before january 1. 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- PROMISE (OPTIMISM) roam the moon by Christmas Eve 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the next George R. R. Martin "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"? 1 platforms · —other
- New fish speaces in july 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US cut ASML off Cymer before 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Saving Gemini: The 9-Min Road to Recovery" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Obsession" be nominated for Best Picture? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Cade Klubnik start a game for the NY Jets in the 2026 regular season or playoffs? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Russia or Belarus attack Poland in the next year? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Rust be the most admired *and* most desired language in the 2025 StackOverflow developer survey? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Andy Burnham last 2 years? (Niall Ferguson bet.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone hang a giant Jose Luis Ricon poster in moxsf.com for a period of more than 4 days in 2026-2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Destroying the universe: How hard can it be?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- "Will the #1 movie at the US domestic box office this July 4th weekend (July 3–5) gross over $85 Million?" 1 platforms · —other
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals have 50 or more wins entering the 2026 All-Star Break? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I spend more than $1,500 on food in July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Last Week Tonight with John Oliver be renewed for a 14th season? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I reach 300 Questions by August 18, 2026 (8/18/26)? (This is my 151st.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will anyone managram me 5000 mana in 1 week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Taylor Swift give birth to baby in 2027? 1 platforms · —other