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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Generation Starship By 2150 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US government officially acknowledge retrieving non-human craft before January 1, 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will AARO's next public report reference data collected from more than 3 distinct sensor modalities? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a peer-reviewed paper analyzing UAP sensor data be published in a Nature-family journal before January 1, 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Taylor Swift announce she’s pregnant by Swiftmas (Dec. 13)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any G7 nation release a UAP-related document cache exceeding 500 pages before July 1, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Disney’s live-action Moana outgross Universal's Minions & Monsters domestically by July 30? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kalshi or Polymarket be acquired by EOY 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Vozinha join a decent football club in 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I permaban 10+ users by end July 12th? 1 platforms · —other
- Resolves oppositely 1 platforms · —other
- Will fatespeaker reach Candidate Master on Codeforces before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- USA vs Belgium — Who will win? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Every Benchmark is Broken" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will July 2026 in Paris, France be the hottest July Paris has ever had? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be at least one more peace talk by the US and Iran before August 1? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- If proportional representation is in Labour's next manifesto, will they win the GE? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "(Don't fear) the strangelet" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the combined net worth of Greg Brockman and Dario Amodei exceed that of Elon Musk, before one of them dies? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the water temperature at NOAA Station SDBC1 (San Diego) hit 72.7°F or higher at any point before August 27, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will August 2026 be warmer than July 2026 (ERA5)? 1 platforms · —other
- Opus 4 revived by EoY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be famine in Russia before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifold ever ban trading bonus "slop" markets? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any senator die within July? 1 platforms · —other
- Standing seats on regular commercial flights by end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Harry Potter and the Rules of Quidditch" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Romantic Relationships 1 platforms · —other
- Will the standalone Hulu app still exist on July 1, 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Jarell Quansah play in the England-Norway game in the quarter-final of the World Cup 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- I burned my arm on the oven on the 4th of July. Will it scar? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I have 7 weigh-ins at or below 200 lbs by July 31? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my Manifold be able to turn a profit this week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Moana" earn more than $60M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend 1 platforms · —other
- Will I reach a 67 day prediction streak? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Bryan Johnson discover a cure to autoimmune gastritis before 2040? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iceland vote to open negotiations with the EU? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a fourth Korean Nobel Prize winner in 2026? Diaspora counts. 1 platforms · —other
- Will Chez Panisse in Berkeley get a Michelin star before 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Boston have a 3 Michelin Star restaurant by the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Silver hit $65 an ounce by close of market Friday? 1 platforms · —other
- Injustice 3 released before 2028? [DC comics fighting game] 1 platforms · —other
- Will dt120 get fda approval before 2029 1 platforms · —other
- Will I become the TA for AP Calculus BC next year in our school? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Truth Social $DJT still be a publicly listed stock at the end of 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the "Wada Hoppah" Charles River ferry launch in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Nash Pit: The Board Game published before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Rob Miles say the word "Fable" in a Rational Animations video published in July 2026? 1 platforms · —other