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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I have 75 Manifold Markets followers on September 5, 2026 (9/5/26)? (Today is day 53 & I have 35 followers.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get an internship before July 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Why I Left Google DeepMind" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a red card or 5 yellow cards in the World Cup Third-Place Play-off? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Odyssey" gross >$1 billion worldwide? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Amy Klobuchar win all counties in the 2026 DFL Governor primary? 1 platforms · —other
- Is football coming home before the end of 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my son pass All of his exams? 1 platforms · —other
- will there be a moomin prediction market by the end of july? 1 platforms · —other
- GogoJili 1 platforms · —other
- jiligm 1 platforms · —other
- The US bomb Iran at least once during August? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a general-purpose Activation Language Model (ALM) be publicly introduced by end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Pythia" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Jackpot 777 1 platforms · —other
- Is Auto Cash-Out Worth Using? 1 platforms · —other
- On 27th August, will the in/out price for Kimi K3 on Openrouter be below $2 / $10 per 1M tokens? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I do anything in 2027 1 platforms · —other
- Will Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kimi K3 be open source on the 13th August? 1 platforms · —other
- Kimi Moonshoot IPO before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mbappé retire in early 2027 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran before September? 1 platforms · —other
- Mathematical flaw in new conformal prediction result by EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the U.S. remove its 25% tariffs on most Brazilian goods by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The bar is lower than you think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Zvi agree that Kimi K3 is better than Opus 4.8 for at least for some (non-trivial) use-cases? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "I don't think Claude is misaligned in 'Agenti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will JasonMendoza2008 get promoted to masters this season? 1 platforms · —other
- Jilino1 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Odyssey" reach $200 million domestic box office by August 2, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos? 1 platforms · —other
- Will David Baszucki die of assassination? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ingvar Carlsson live to 100? 1 platforms · —other
- MB5 | Nhà Cái MB5 – Nền Tảng Giải Trí Trực Tuyến Uy Tín Tại Việt Nam 1 platforms · —other
- Will football ever come home this century? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Recap of bike trip/street interviews across A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Biological computer becomes interesting before 2031? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Tadej Pogacar start the 2026 Vuelta a Espana? 1 platforms · —other
- Will ICPs price reach $3 before Sept 1 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be ranked #300 or higher on the MM Fan Favorite Achievement by August 4, 2026? (I'm #366 today after 54+ days.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Lucky777 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a data center on the planet Mars by EOY 2076? 1 platforms · —other
- Tesla sudden unintended acceleration found to be the result of manufacturer defect by 12/31/2030? 1 platforms · —other
- JILI Games 1 platforms · —other
- Will manifold shut down permanently by 2100? 1 platforms · —other
- Mass shooting on Wednesday? 1 platforms · —other