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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will DDR DRAM exceed 32 Gbit per-die density before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Mathematicians are Feeling the Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will major Ozon fulfillment center or logistics facility get destroyed by drone attack before September 1, 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will major Yandex.Market fulfillment center or logistics facility get destroyed by drone attack before September 1, 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone Managram me 200 mana until market close? 1 platforms · —other
- More than 3.5 fights in cafe galery 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Not Pinning Your OpenRouter Provider Might In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Stripe acquire OpenRouter by EOY? 1 platforms · —other
- If Stripe acquires OpenRouter by EOY, will it be for ≥$10B? 1 platforms · —other
- On August 7th will Claude Opus 5 be above GPT 5.6 Sol on LLM agent arena? 1 platforms · —other
- Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- What does the "G" stand for in "ChatGPT" (and LLMs like GPT-4)? 1 platforms · —other
- With Khan voted out, will Keir Starmer be the next ICC chief prosecutor? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ronaldo score in his final match for Portugal? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my sister be at sleepaway camp on August 1? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Gavin Newsom cease to be the favorite Democratic Nominee before 2027? [Per Polymarket Data] 1 platforms · —other
- Will Alvarez join barca this summer 1 platforms · —other
- Will I reach 2027 CF rating before 2027 1 platforms · —other
- AOC will be first female POTUS? 1 platforms · —other
- Kimi K4 released in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Economist Democracy Index of India in 2027 be above 7? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any EA charity get a grant more than twice the median grant for Project for Awesome 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any Givewell Top Charity get a grant from Project for Awesome 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Long (Self-)Correction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Bryan Johnson dunk a basketball before 2036? 1 platforms · —other
- If I work for a16z, will I meet Marc Andreessen by EOY? 1 platforms · —other
- Will twitter / x.com be open source before September? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Tim Hua concede his bet? 1 platforms · —other
- Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Duane Arnold" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will GPT-6 out-benchmark Opus 5? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Grok 4.7 out-benchmark Opus 5? 1 platforms · —other
- Will more than 7 robot substitutes be used in any FTC match today? 1 platforms · —other
- Bordeaux evacuated before middle of August? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Bryan Johnson dunk before EOY 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kuiper Project launch 1618 satellites by the end of July 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any cloned human organs, including the organs of viable cloned human infants, exist by EOY 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Steph Curry get traded before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the NCAAF CFB Playoffs expand beyond 12 teams before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031? 1 platforms · —other
- [10k mana bounty] Looking for a dataset lost in the internet 1 platforms · —other
- Will Rayan Cherki be a starter for France at Euro 2028 or the 2030 World Cup? 1 platforms · —other
- TK666 Bangladesh – Trusted Online Platform at MegaTK666 1 platforms · —other
- Will RFK Jr. leave the position of HHS Secretary by the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic buy >1GW of capacity from Australian data centres by EOY 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- On 31 December 2029, will the gap between Manifold's and Metaculus's "AGI" forecasts exceed 4 years? 1 platforms · —other