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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will Daniel Sun qualify for IMO 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be widespread gas rationing at the pump in Italy by noon May 21, 2026 (local time)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at Oscars 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will gas exceed $4.50 before midterm 1 platforms · —other
- Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Javokhir Sindarov score 5/7 or better in his final 7 games of the Candidates Tournament 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will COMEX Gold (June 2026) touch $5000.00 at any point before April 25, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will LeBron James record at least two Triple-Doubles in the final 5 games of the 2025–26 regular season? 1 platforms · —other
- Will LeBron James average at least 42.0 (Points + Rebounds + Assists) per game over the final 5 games? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Stanley Milgram wasn’t pessimistic enough abo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Hungary become more authoritarian in 2025? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I notice any degradation in Claude performance over the next week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any Lycoris Recoil character have a kioku in Magia Exedra by the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "dark ilan" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a tornado outbreak occur on either April 12, 13, 14 or 15 in the USA? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get into a non-empty subset of {MCSP, SuMAC, PROMYS, ROSS} 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- CIGARs (permanent) 1 platforms · —other
- Venezuelan leader dies in us prison by 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Statistical Challenges with Making Super IQ b..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a collab between Manifold and Kinnu before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Modi leave india 1 platforms · —other
- When the title screen of Invincible S4 crumbles away, will Thragg be behind it? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Brent Crude Oil close above $120 on April 15th, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Zac complete his overglade debt before 11 Apr 1 platforms · —other
- Will I think Manifest was worth the (huge) ticket price? 1 platforms · —other
- will India reduce its dependency on crude oil imports to below 50% of its total crude oil requirements within 10 years? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a cruise ship be sunk by terrorists or a state military force by the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war or there will be acts of war on German Territory. 1 platforms · —other
- Will Astra attend HCTG 1 platforms · —other
- Close 1 platforms · —other
- Will I complete my overglade debt before May 1? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Corner-Stone" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will anti-gravitational technology be disclosed before 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- In the next two months will I find a conconspirator for making prediction markets about personal life outcomes? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Tetra change her discord profile picture in the next month? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Tetra read a book in Toki Pona by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will UConn defeat Illinois in the 2026 NCAA Men's Final Four semifinal on April 4? 1 platforms · —other
- Will UConn win the 2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship? 1 platforms · —other
- Will US Core PCE Price Index YoY for February 2026 be 2.8% or higher as reported by BEA on April 9? 1 platforms · —other
- Will US nonfarm payrolls for March 2026 be 150,000 or higher? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Evie complete her degree? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Carolanne complete her degree? 1 platforms · —other
- Will another forspoken game release by the end of 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- will kevin zhang be able to bench 135 by the end of summer 1 platforms · —other
- yes Both Teams To Score,yes Both Teams To Score,yes Atletico,yes PSG,yes Arsenal,yes Real Madrid 1 platforms · —other
- yes Pittsburgh,yes Arizona,yes Miami,yes Cincinnati,yes Minnesota,yes New York M,yes New York Y,yes Los Angeles D,yes LA Kings 1 platforms · —other
- yes Los Angeles L,yes Deandre Ayton: 10+,yes Over 213.5 points scored 1 platforms · —other
- yes Portland,yes Oklahoma City 1 platforms · —other