Signal · Live Shifts
Market Movers
Prediction markets with the biggest probability shifts. The loudest signal of new information hitting the tape.
↑ Rising (15)
- Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)?+32.6pp 89% from 57% — crypto
- Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?+20.3pp 66% from 46% — other
- Will Grok 4.6 be released by August 15th+15.2pp 70% from 55% — other
- Will Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday?+13.0pp 63% from 50% — crypto
- Outcome of India vs Sri Lanka Test series (Aug 2026)+12.8pp 63% from 50% — other
- Will the player that scores the first TD in the HoF game also score a TD in the regular season?+11.7pp 46% from 34% — other
- Will BARACK OBAMA endorse or congratulate Abdul el Sayed before end of Friday?+8.9pp 43% from 34% — other
- Will the two-starred restaurant Commis in Oakland gain a Michelin star before losing one?+8.5pp 44% from 35% — science
- Will the Nicholas Funk vs PSA RICO lawsuit get dismissed?+8.4pp 78% from 70% — other
- Will silver metal close above $60 at the end of August+8.2pp 44% from 36% — other
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide?+7.2pp 85% from 77% — other
- Will Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton break up before December 31, 2027?+7.0pp 67% from 60% — other
- Will Meta (META) close higher on August 31?+5.9pp 43% from 37% — other
- Will a high-surf advisory be issued for the Orange County or San Diego coastline between August 6 and August 26, 2026?+5.1pp 55% from 50% — other
- Will Bitcoin close daily candle above $66,000 on August 6?+4.9pp 60% from 55% — crypto
↓ Falling (15)
- Gemini 3.5 Pro June?-62.5pp 12% from 74% — other
- Will something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st?-37.1pp 13% from 50% — crypto
- Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday?-30.1pp 20% from 50% — other
- Will "The Brink Of War" earn more than $20M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend-25.3pp 7% from 33% — other
- Will Anthropic release a new line of models by the end of the year?-22.9pp 25% from 48% — other
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?-21.9pp 39% from 61% — science
- El-Sayed comdemn or disavow Hasan Piker before midterms?-20.4pp 7% from 28% — other
- Will the average gas price in Indiana be greater than $3.9999 on Friday, August 7th?-18.1pp 6% from 24% — other
- Will Google conventionally acquire Mechanize by the end of 2026?-17.0pp 14% from 31% — other
- S&P 500 closes above $7,800 on August 14?-16.5pp 33% from 50% — other
- Will more than 8 bots trade on this market in the next week-15.9pp 46% from 62% — other
- USMV at least Ṁ1000/share for at least 48 continuous hours before September?-15.0pp 30% from 45% — other
- Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?-13.5pp 37% from 50% — science
- Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026?-9.4pp 16% from 25% — politics
- Will the official daily high temperature in San Francisco reach 68.0°F or higher on Saturday, August 8, 2026?-8.7pp 41% from 50% — science
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