Signal · Live Shifts
Market Movers
Prediction markets with the biggest probability shifts. The loudest signal of new information hitting the tape.
↑ Rising (10)
- Will BARACK OBAMA endorse or congratulate Abdul el Sayed before end of Friday?+31.0pp 43% from 12% — other
- Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?+20.3pp 66% from 46% — other
- Will the player that scores the first TD in the HoF game also score a TD in the regular season?+11.7pp 46% from 34% — other
- Will the podium of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes be Demi, Marlen, Kasia in some order?+10.8pp 51% from 40% — other
- Will Bitcoin be higher by close on Friday?+10.4pp 63% from 53% — crypto
- Will BioAge's BGE-102 achieve its primary endpoint in the Phase 2 QUELL-CV trial before January 1, 2028?+4.6pp 52% from 47% — other
- Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026?+3.3pp 16% from 12% — politics
- MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Toronto Blue Jays OR will the 3-game series total 25 or more runs?+3.0pp 53% from 50% — sports
- Will models be more or less aligned one year from now?+1.6pp 56% from 55% — other
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?+1.6pp 56% from 55% — other
↓ Falling (11)
- Will Haley Stevens endorse Abdul El-Sayed by Sunday?-73.5pp 20% from 93% — other
- Will something happen in AI every single week between now and Dec 31st?-37.1pp 13% from 50% — crypto
- Will Google conventionally acquire Mechanize by the end of 2026?-17.0pp 14% from 31% — other
- USMV at least Ṁ1000/share for at least 48 continuous hours before September?-15.0pp 30% from 45% — other
- MLB: Will the Milwaukee Brewers sweep the Minnesota Twins OR will the 3-game series total 26 or more runs?-8.2pp 47% from 56% — sports
- Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?-7.2pp 34% from 41% — other
- Will SpaceX (SPCX) stock drop below $100 by the end of 2026?-4.7pp 39% from 44% — science
- Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)?-3.2pp 89% from 93% — crypto
- Gemini 3.5 Pro June?-1.4pp 12% from 13% — other
- Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?-0.8pp 37% from 37% — science
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?-0.5pp 52% from 52% — crypto
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