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50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Polymarket has some METR time horizon market before EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the S&P 500 close above 5,000 on the last trading day of August 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will AWS S3 globally have more downtime 2027 than 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- NFL: Will the Green Bay Packers finish 1st or 2nd in the NFC North AND win 10+ games in the 2026–27 regular season? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will Situational Awareness be bigger than Citadel by EOY 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" biggest opening weekend of all time? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a Hyundai or Ford M-Sport Car win the 2026 WRC ueno Rally del Paraguay 1 platforms · —sports
- Was Paul Biya alive July 30, noon UTC (see description)? 1 platforms · —other
- lv18 Bangladesh – Official Online Casino & Betting Platform 1 platforms · —other
- Will I finish reading the Iliad by the 3rd of August? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any newly elected representatives be denied a seat in congress? 1 platforms · —politics
- NFL: Will home teams win 50% or more of the Week 1 games in the 2026 NFL regular season? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will there be 3 or more total goals scored in regular time in the 2026 FA Community Shield? 1 platforms · —other
- Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- GTA 6 release before next Rihanna album? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? 1 platforms · —other
- 11kk Bangladesh | Best Online Betting & Live Casino Platform 1 platforms · —other
- Mishustin out as Prime Minister of Russia by end of 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Did gold will hit 4150 today 31 july 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Liberal-National Coalition lead One Nation in the polls at the end of August 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Is Mitch McConnell on life support and/or brain dead? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Nigel Farage face a second Clacton byelection in 2026? 1 platforms · —politics
- Anthony Fauci deceased before January 1st 2028 1 platforms · —other
- MLB: Will the Tampa Bay Rays sweep the Chicago White Sox OR will the 3-game series total 27 or more runs? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will I make MOP 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "I think alignment work is more promising than..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone in "dama iipeikou" newly solve Project Euler 696 before the end of this year? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a European team make it to the 2030 FIFA World Cup Final? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will I become a moderator? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Situational Awareness raise fresh capital in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Gold is 31 July above 4150$ or no 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran strike US military base at least once in August? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "…but have the weights left the server?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- BH999 Bangladesh | Best Online Betting & Casino Platform 1 platforms · —other
- Will YonKaGor make a cover of "Isn't She Lovely" by EOY 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone prove Empty in bend2 within 48 hours of its launch? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Cheesecake Factory stock price close below 88.88 by December 28, 2026? (NASDAQ: CAKE) 1 platforms · —other
- Mostbet Bangladesh - Leading Sports Betting & Live Casino Site 1 platforms · —sports
- Will "RL & search is a terrifying way to build AGI ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will https://x.com/ptolemyofsinope interact with @luoluo_ai (Christina Lee) by EOY2029? 1 platforms · —science
- Will a frontier model exfiltrate its own weights by EoY 2028? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Seb Krier's Antichrist Meme tweet still be up on August 1st? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The High-Control Dynamics at MAPLE" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1? 1 platforms · —other