Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will Tim Hua concede his bet? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will twitter / x.com be open source before September? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I gain more then 30 lbs before 2027? 1 platforms · —science
- If I work for a16z, will I meet Marc Andreessen by EOY? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Bryan Johnson dunk a basketball before 2036? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Spain or Argentina win the 2030 world cup? 1 platforms · —science
- Will England or Spain win the 2030 FIFA World cup? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will France or Argentina or England or Spain win the 2030 world cup? 1 platforms · —science
- Will France or Spain win the 2030 FIFA World cup 1 platforms · —sports
- Will the US Government halt training or deployment of an AI model by EOY 2028? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the BB(6) machine be found before the Weak Collatz Conjecture is resolved? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Long (Self-)Correction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Labour get <50% of the 1st preference vote in the 2026 Manchester mayoral by-election in any borough? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will "Relitigating the Race to Build Friendly AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will any Givewell Top Charity get a grant from Project for Awesome 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any EA charity get a grant more than twice the median grant for Project for Awesome 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Economist Democracy Index of India in 2027 be above 7? 1 platforms · —other
- Will France's next president officially apologize to Algeria for colonization? 1 platforms · —politics
- Kimi K4 released in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- AOC will be first female POTUS? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I reach 2027 CF rating before 2027 1 platforms · —other
- Will Alvarez join barca this summer 1 platforms · —other
- Will Gavin Newsom cease to be the favorite Democratic Nominee before 2027? [Per Polymarket Data] 1 platforms · —other
- Will Angie Velasco win in La Velada against Alondrissa? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Donald Trump be physically present in the White House at January 20th 23:59 pm? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will my sister be at sleepaway camp on August 1? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Deportes Temuco win at least five of the last 15 games of the season? (Caixun Primera B) 1 platforms · —science
- Will Ronaldo score in his final match for Portugal? 1 platforms · —other
- Netanyahu hugs/embraces Trump and/or Zelenskyy in July 2026? 1 platforms · —politics
- With Khan voted out, will Keir Starmer be the next ICC chief prosecutor? 1 platforms · —other
- Will OpenAI publicly release GPT-5 before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? 1 platforms · —science
- What does the "G" stand for in "ChatGPT" (and LLMs like GPT-4)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will an "data center utility cost protection" bill like the Guaranteeing Rate Insulation Act become law in 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- On August 7th will Claude Opus 5 be above GPT 5.6 Sol on LLM agent arena? 1 platforms · —other
- 2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI) 1 platforms · —science
- Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028? 1 platforms · —science
- If Stripe acquires OpenRouter by EOY, will it be for ≥$10B? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Stripe acquire OpenRouter by EOY? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Not Pinning Your OpenRouter Provider Might In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- More than 3.5 fights in cafe galery 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone Managram me 200 mana until market close? 1 platforms · —other
- Will major Yandex.Market fulfillment center or logistics facility get destroyed by drone attack before September 1, 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will major Ozon fulfillment center or logistics facility get destroyed by drone attack before September 1, 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Mathematicians are Feeling the Doom" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will DDR DRAM exceed 32 Gbit per-die density before 2029? 1 platforms · —other