Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will James Micheltorena make the Mathcounts team this year 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Loop Gear SK07 reach 90% of its stated 2800 lumen max output after 30 seconds of runtime on turbo mode 1 platforms · —other
- Will Abdul El Sayed win the Michigan Democratic primary for senate by 10.00000% or more? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will there be a recession / downturn by the end of 2050 that makes me stop believing "stocks only go up"? 1 platforms · —other
- Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a rider from Team SD Worx - Protime win Stage 1 of the 2026 Tour de France Femmes? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "You (Yes, You) Need A February 2020 Checklist..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the hot tub be fixed by Saturday night? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Is Mythos good at cyber because it kept hacki..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- New Mersenne Prime found before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I destroy my keyboard? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Odyssey" surpass "Deadpool & Wolverine" as the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Americans' confidence in newspapers decline in 2027, according to Gallup? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the 2028 Dem ticket be Kamala as prez, AOC as VP? 1 platforms · —other
- If the 2028 Dem ticket is Kamala/AOC, will they win? 1 platforms · —other
- Will my Manifold Markets net worth reach 14K by August 26, 2026? (Reached 9,555 on Day 65.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will an active NFL player be publicly documented surfing at a California beach during the 2026 Preseason? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will SSI do anything I consider interesting before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "OpenAI's myopia keeps causing alignment problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Outcome of West Indies vs Pakistan Test series (Jul-Aug 2026) 1 platforms · —other
- On 31 December 2029, will the gap between Manifold's and Metaculus's "AGI" forecasts exceed 4 years? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic buy >1GW of capacity from Australian data centres by EOY 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will RFK Jr. leave the position of HHS Secretary by the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- TK666 Bangladesh – Trusted Online Platform at MegaTK666 1 platforms · —other
- Will Rayan Cherki be a starter for France at Euro 2028 or the 2030 World Cup? 1 platforms · —other
- roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Trump be reelected again 1 platforms · —politics
- Will OpenAI cease operations or acquired for less than $500 billion before 2040? 1 platforms · —science
- [10k mana bounty] Looking for a dataset lost in the internet 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the NCAAF CFB Playoffs expand beyond 12 teams before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Steph Curry get traded before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Trump impeached before Iran war's end? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any cloned human organs, including the organs of viable cloned human infants, exist by EOY 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will sylvanos be added to rivals of aether 2 by the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —crypto
- Will elliana be added to rivals of aether 2 by the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —crypto
- Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kuiper Project launch 1618 satellites by the end of July 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Canada have at least 1GW of space to ground power transmission in 2045? 1 platforms · —science
- Will an AI agent be directly convicted of a crime before 2030? 1 platforms · —science
- Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Bryan Johnson dunk before EOY 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Bordeaux evacuated before middle of August? 1 platforms · —other
- Will more than 7 robot substitutes be used in any FTC match today? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Grok 4.7 out-benchmark Opus 5? 1 platforms · —other
- Will GPT-6 out-benchmark Opus 5? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Asahifuji (Ochirsaikhan/Ochiru) go undefeated through the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will "Duane Arnold" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Gemini perfect score on IMO 2026? 1 platforms · —other