Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will @she_llac be mentioned in Apple's security patch notes before the end of this year? 1 platforms · —other
- Will an Anthropic model autonomously hack an external entity in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Interest rates above 10% before 2030? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will front-month ICE Brent settle ≥ $100 on 5 Aug 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifold Markets implement one of my suggestions by Midnight Pacific Time, December 23, 2026? (12/23/26) 1 platforms · —other
- Will Artemis V launch by June 1, 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Drone WMDs Don’t Need Any New Technology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- CoreWeave stock price reaches 150 USD by EOY 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Practical Learnings from Synthetic Document F..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "OpenAI Models Behind HuggingFace Cybersecurit..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will "OpenAI Shares Some Alignment Problems" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027? 1 platforms · —crypto
- Will "How big is the Sun? How could you figure it out?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Trump's tariffs using Section 338 hold 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Ronaldo retire above the age of 43? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US or Israel attack Pickaxe Mountain before Sep 1, 2026 1 platforms · —science
- Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Daniel Ortega lose power in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- I will build a split keyboard by EOY 1 platforms · —other
- JiliKK 1 platforms · —other
- The maximum temperature in Davis, CA wil reach 99.0°F on at least two individual calendar days from July 23 to August 2. 1 platforms · —other
- Bsbsns 1 platforms · —other
- Will G2 beat KC on July 26th? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) direct ≥$1.5B in grants in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will GiveWell approve ≥$800M in grants in its 2026 grant year (Feb 2026–Jan 2027)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will i get more than 41 traders on my other market? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" earn more than $30M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get to Expert 1 on Mahjong Soul before the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Best instant loan comparison platform in india ? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic allow me to have a daily or weekly usage credit limit in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Is the Jacobian conjecture true in two dimensions? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Stage 21 of the Tour de France be won in a sprint? 1 platforms · —other
- Will @tooawful on telegram be found dead before sept? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone from Manifold Markets (player or employee) send me a postcard by December 23, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Darline Graham run for and win Lindsey Graham's senate seat in the 2026 Senate Election? 1 platforms · —politics
- 64 teams in 2030 FIFA World Cup? 1 platforms · —sports
- PSG three-peat the ucl 1 platforms · —other
- Will any single datacenter campus reach 2 GW of power capacity by the end of 2027 1 platforms · —other
- Will Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Canada ever go in effect? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Quarterly Capex Spend among AI Hyperscalers decrease before 2028? 1 platforms · —science
- Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Andy Burnham's No 10 North be fully in place by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029? 1 platforms · —science
- Will matttt upload another video on his main youtube channel before the end of August? [comic books and manga] 1 platforms · —science
- Will Mamdani arrest Bibi before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will someone other than Andy Burnham be UK Prime Minister at any point before 1 August 2028? 1 platforms · —other