Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will Barcelona beat Real Madrid in the El Clasico 1 platforms · —other
- Will George R. R. Martin's next "Not a Blog" post mention "The Winds of Winter"? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any major USD stablecoin (USDT/USDC/PYUSD) face a federal regulatory enforcement action by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will the 2026 NBA Finals MVP be a player drafted in 2018 or earlier? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp or more at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran physically hand over its 'nuclear dust' / enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a new religious movement in the USA that achieves 10,000+ followers before 2036? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Claude Sonnet 4.8 be released before May 24? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Vancouver Whitecaps be relocated before the end of 2034? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year? 1 platforms · —science
- Will I get a GF in the year of 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will "LessWrong Shows You Social Signals Before the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get hired by Walmart? 1 platforms · —other
- Artemis III launches before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Quick Paper Review: "There Will Be a Scientif..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will it rain on the spring ACX Everywhere: Boston meetup this year? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws? 1 platforms · —economics
- US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description) 1 platforms · —other
- Will Slovakia win the ice hockey world championship 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a super-injunction relating to Sir Keir Starmer be revealed in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will another OPEC member announce intent to leave the cartel by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iran agree to suspend uranium enrichment for at least 12 months by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Meta's reported 2026 full-year AI/data-center capex be at least $130B? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Anthropic release Claude Opus 5 by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Google DeepMind release Gemini 3.5 by July 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will OpenAI release a model marketed as GPT-6 by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will TheTechQuant reach 200 followers by Jun 1 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- How likely is the farm bill to pass with the save our bacon act provision? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Walpurgisnacht: Rising be released after August 28th 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will ManiFold Hire a GTM manager until 30 May 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Over 1.5 red cards issued for mouth covering at 2026 FIFA World Cup? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will Jose Luis Ricon be part of a 501(c)(3) organization by EOY2035? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Takes from two months as an aspiring LLM natu..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "llm assistant personas seem increasingly inco..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Not a Paper: "Frontier Lab CEOs are Capable o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Qwen 3.6+ 122B A10B be open weights before July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a former pornstar become US president before China overtakes the US in GDP? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Monero trade below $300 during May? 1 platforms · —other
- will i get a medal at the IPO 2026? 1 platforms · —other