Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will Matt Damon be nominated for best actor at the Oscars for Odysseus? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Slamfest '99 lost media be found by the end of 2028? (Super Smash Bros promotion event) 1 platforms · —other
- Will Andrew Tate be in jail through the end of August? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Andrew Tate be extradited by the end of the year? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Square Kilometer Array detect biosignature by the end of 2050 ? 1 platforms · —other
- Will AOC endorse or appear at a campaign event for Troy Jackson? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the Israeli elections result in government formation? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Sigil Wen visit opensauce 2026/2027/2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will gwern visit OpenSauce 2026/2027/2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Cambridge, MA ban plastic produce bags in supermarkets (like SF) by EOY2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Singapore rank higher than Hong Kong in the 2026 Fraser Institute Economic Freedom of the World Index? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the following events all occur by December 1, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Mass shooting on Wednesday? 1 platforms · —other
- Will manifold shut down permanently by 2100? 1 platforms · —other
- JILI Games 1 platforms · —other
- Tesla sudden unintended acceleration found to be the result of manufacturer defect by 12/31/2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a data center on the planet Mars by EOY 2076? 1 platforms · —other
- Lucky777 1 platforms · —other
- Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be ranked #300 or higher on the MM Fan Favorite Achievement by August 4, 2026? (I'm #366 today after 54+ days.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will anyone other than Farage and Binface get their deposit back in the 2026 Clacton by-election? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will a major 2028 Democratic presidential candidate propose creating a Cabinet-level department to deal with AI risk? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will ICPs price reach $3 before Sept 1 2026 1 platforms · —other
- Will Tadej Pogacar start the 2026 Vuelta a Espana? 1 platforms · —other
- Biological computer becomes interesting before 2031? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Recap of bike trip/street interviews across A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will football ever come home this century? 1 platforms · —other
- MB5 | Nhà Cái MB5 – Nền Tảng Giải Trí Trực Tuyến Uy Tín Tại Việt Nam 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ingvar Carlsson live to 100? 1 platforms · —other
- Will David Baszucki die of assassination? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Democrats win the Senate before January 20, 2029? 1 platforms · —politics
- Next Millennium problem be solved by Chinese AI? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Messi score during the world cup final VS Spain ? 1 platforms · —science
- Will "The Odyssey" reach $200 million domestic box office by August 2, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st 1 platforms · —economics
- Claude Haiku dying in 3 months? 1 platforms · —science
- Jilino1 1 platforms · —other
- Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —science
- Will JasonMendoza2008 get promoted to masters this season? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "I don't think Claude is misaligned in 'Agenti..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the next new member of the US Supreme Court be a member of the Federalist Society? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Zvi agree that Kimi K3 is better than Opus 4.8 for at least for some (non-trivial) use-cases? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The bar is lower than you think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the U.S. remove its 25% tariffs on most Brazilian goods by the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Thinking Machines surpass Anthropic in revenue before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will BJP lost in 2029 India Parliamentary Election? 1 platforms · —politics
- Mathematical flaw in new conformal prediction result by EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Vancouver adopt Villages before next election? 1 platforms · —politics