Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran before September? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mbappé retire in early 2027 1 platforms · —other
- Kimi Moonshoot IPO before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Kimi K3 be open source on the 13th August? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Balaji's Network School announce a shutdown or relocation away from Malaysia before the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Lego release a set for 'Fountain' by Duchamp by the end of 2030? 1 platforms · —science
- Will I do anything in 2027 1 platforms · —other
- On 27th August, will the in/out price for Kimi K3 on Openrouter be below $2 / $10 per 1M tokens? 1 platforms · —other
- Is Auto Cash-Out Worth Using? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Tesla start selling a vehicle using a new "AI 5" computer by the end of Q3 2027? 1 platforms · —science
- Jackpot 777 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mykhailo Fedorov be reappointed as Defence Minister of Ukraine? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "Pythia" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Hegseth out before 2028 1 platforms · —crypto
- Will a general-purpose Activation Language Model (ALM) be publicly introduced by end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Pete Hegseth will still be Secretary of War by end July? 1 platforms · —crypto
- The US bomb Iran at least once during August? 1 platforms · —other
- jiligm 1 platforms · —other
- GogoJili 1 platforms · —other
- will there be a moomin prediction market by the end of july? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? 1 platforms · —science
- Will my son pass All of his exams? 1 platforms · —other
- Will we uplift cockatoo brains to be at 3x normal FLOPS in cockatoo brain units by 2045 1 platforms · —science
- Is football coming home before the end of 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Amy Klobuchar win all counties in the 2026 DFL Governor primary? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The Odyssey" gross >$1 billion worldwide? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a red card or 5 yellow cards in the World Cup Third-Place Play-off? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "Why I Left Google DeepMind" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get an internship before July 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I have 75 Manifold Markets followers on September 5, 2026 (9/5/26)? (Today is day 53 & I have 35 followers.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal in the World Cup Final? 1 platforms · —other
- Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036? 1 platforms · —science
- DeepSeek IPO before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- If Opus 5 is released by EOM, will it out-benchmark Fable 5? 1 platforms · —other
- United States wins the world cup by 2050 1 platforms · —other
- China wins the world cup by 2050 1 platforms · —other
- Will IBM end positive at the end of the week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Everton sign a new RB before the start of the season? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I like the Poetic Edda? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "The AFFINE Superintelligence Alignment Semina..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- The Odyssey rating on Rotten Tomatoes after 1 month... 1 platforms · —other
- Will Donald Trump’s approval rating increase by at least 1 point by July 21? 1 platforms · —politics
- will anyone from elasticity.institute win nobel prize in economics by EOY2040? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher? 1 platforms · —other
- Luck or discipline? 1 platforms · —other
- Did pharma's trade network reorganize more than agriculture's under COVID? (H3-P, 2017→2022) 1 platforms · —other