Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Razib Khan, gwern, and Sigil Wen all dance gangnam style by EOY2045? 1 platforms · —other
- If the Clacton by-election is held, will Count Binface get at least 10 percent of the vote? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Mitch McConnell speak this year? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the President have federal police presence at polling places during the midterms? 1 platforms · —politics
- We get Gemini 4 Pro before GTA 6 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Swift Boost Mission be a success ? 1 platforms · —other
- If Boris Johnson stands in the Clacton by-election, will he win? 1 platforms · —politics
- If Nigel Farage wins the Clacton by-election, will he be recalled anyway? 1 platforms · —politics
- If Farage loses the 2026 Clacton by-election, will the PM after the next general election be Reform? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will I be placed within a league before august? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I reach 15 followers before august? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifold create an actual Manifold Mobile App before July 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Top OSWorld 2.0 score by end of 2027 1 platforms · —other
- Will trump lift the World Cup 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Mitch McConnell outlive Ben Sasse? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a player have to be carried out of the pitch on a stretcher in the 2026 FIFA world cup? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will I ever fall sleep before midnight during PROMYS? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Rob Miles say the word "Fable" in a Rational Animations video published in July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Nash Pit: The Board Game published before 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the "Wada Hoppah" Charles River ferry launch in 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the December 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will Truth Social $DJT still be a publicly listed stock at the end of 2029? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I become the TA for AP Calculus BC next year in our school? 1 platforms · —other
- Troy Jackson wins 2026 US Senate election in Maine? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will "A global workspace in language models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the UK pass legislation that imposes binding rules on the most powerful AI models being developed, before 2027? 1 platforms · —science
- Will dt120 get fda approval before 2029 1 platforms · —other
- Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030? 1 platforms · —science
- Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030? 1 platforms · —science
- Injustice 3 released before 2028? [DC comics fighting game] 1 platforms · —other
- PHCROWN Philippines – Trusted Digital Gaming and Entertainment Destination 1 platforms · —science
- Will Trump interfere with the World Cup a second time? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Silver hit $65 an ounce by close of market Friday? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Boston have a 3 Michelin Star restaurant by the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Claude Haiku gets deprecated in the next 3 months? 1 platforms · —science
- Will MAA release cutoff scores for USA(J)MO ever again? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Argentina or France win the World Cup? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Chez Panisse in Berkeley get a Michelin star before 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "We need 3rd party Training-Run Assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will FIFA's decision to lift Folarin Balugan's red card suspension be reversed? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will there be a fourth Korean Nobel Prize winner in 2026? Diaspora counts. 1 platforms · —other
- Will Iceland vote to open negotiations with the EU? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Bryan Johnson discover a cure to autoimmune gastritis before 2040? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I reach a 67 day prediction streak? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a snap election be called in the UK this year? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% or lower before Sep 1st 2026 1 platforms · —politics
- Will "Moana" earn more than $60M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend 1 platforms · —other
- Will my Manifold be able to turn a profit this week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I have 7 weigh-ins at or below 200 lbs by July 31? 1 platforms · —other