Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will Mitch McConnell make a verifiable, live public appearance before August 3, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will SPY's July 2026 closing price be higher than its July 2026 opening price? 1 platforms · —other
- ChatGPT 6 Before GTA 6? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Count Binface get between 25.00 and 40.00% of the vote in the clacton by election 1 platforms · —politics
- Graham Platner divorced by EOY 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be more shenanigans during Nash Pit Episode 2 than Nash Pit Episode 3, in my opinion? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Eric Chen get a Gold Medal on IChO? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifold reduce slop markets before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Count Binface (Jonathan David Harvey) become an MP by 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Democratic Senate nominee to replace Graham Platner will be Patrick Dempsey or Troy Jackson or Shenna Bellows. 1 platforms · —politics
- Mmd 1 platforms · —other
- ARG government shutdown before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will either Messi, Ronaldo, or Neymar play in the 2030 World Cup? 1 platforms · —other
- Sakana AI IPO by 2029 1 platforms · —science
- Macron president by 2100 1 platforms · —politics
- ¿Se anularán o suspenderán definitivamente las elecciones de la FUSM 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Yes versus No 1 platforms · —other
- Giannis Antetokounmpo stays on the Miami Heat for the entirety of the 2026-27 NBA season? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will "SFF is very suboptimal" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Infantino win the election for President of FIFA? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Illinois' AI safety bill have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Bitcoin cross $65000 before July 9th 6:30 PM GMT? 1 platforms · —crypto
- Will any lab get a C grade for existential safety in the FLI's Winter 2026 AI Safety Index scorecard? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Israel attack Iran in July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the DJIA go below 50,000 by August 1 (8/1/26)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Manifold Market be mentioned by an American Politician? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Cyberpunk 2 release before the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- If Count Binface wins in Clacton in 2026, will Nigel Farage be in parliament a year later? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I rank #170 in number of markets created on August 11 (8/11/26)? (I'm #200 as of this morning.) 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be at least 155 total home runs hit in the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will Count Binface earn back his deposit (get >=5% of the vote) in the Clacton by-election? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Fable usage on subscription be extended again past July 12? 1 platforms · —science
- Airstrike on a UK datacenter before 2035? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the North Korean delegation attend IMO 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a Clacton by-election happen in 2026? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will I will Nash Pit (episode two)? 1 platforms · —other
- Can I stay off socials for 7 days straight? 1 platforms · —science
- Will I be able to stay off IG/YT/X/LinkedIn for 5 days straight? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the Fed hike rates at the July 2026 FOMC meeting? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will "A Review of Anthropic's Global Workspace Paper" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Lebron James sign within the next week? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Argentina will face France in the final once again? 1 platforms · —science
- Will nicholas decker have a girlfriend by EOY2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will July 2026 be the hottest July London, UK has ever seen? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Mitch McConnell be alive to see GTA6? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Ben Sasse be alive to see GTA6? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "AI companies should publish security assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Count BinFace win the Clacton-by-election? 1 platforms · —politics