Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be API Pricing Only when public access returns? 1 platforms · —other
- Glosso IPO By 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health's website support HTTPS before the end of 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 this year? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the US government introduce any domestic restrictions on open-weight LLMs by EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve be 500M barrels of oil or more at the end of 2027? 1 platforms · —economics
- Will temperatures in Berlin, Germany, reach 40°C this summer? 1 platforms · —other
- Will US government action cause a non-Anthropic company to restrict availability of a model in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will someone manigram me 500 mana? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I still be active on Manifold in 1 year? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Furnace Creek, Death Valley record a high temperature of at least 129.0°F by September 28, 2026 (9/28/26)? 1 platforms · —other
- Will there be a data center on the planet Venus by 2127? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the New York Jets win the 2026 Super Bowl? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Baltimore "happen" for the DC policy crowd before 2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the US gov't take action that causes a non-Anthropic company to reduce availability of a model in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- At least 3 San Diego Comic-Con 2026-related trailers will exceed 12 million YouTube views by August 2, 2026 (8/2/26). 1 platforms · —science
- Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Robinhood still be offering prediction markets in 2027 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic substatially reduce its London office size? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will next OpenAI model be closer to Opus-class or Fable-class? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before July 1? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic legally challenge the US government directive to suspend access to Fable? 1 platforms · —other
- Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the US and Iran formally sign a peace agreement before July 1, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will any NFL team start the 2026 regular season 7-0? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will the US government restrict access to an OpenAI model in 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Anthropic remove the data retention rule on Fable 5 before July? 1 platforms · —other
- Will OpenAI delay OR withdraw a model release due to demands by the US US government by EOY 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Anthropic have KYC for customers before June 22? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the World Cup winner be a country from Europe? 1 platforms · —other
- Will IShowSpeed do an IRL livestream from inside the stadium during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will someone streak during the World Cup 2026 final match? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Netanyahu lose the election and run away to Miami? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Emiliano Martínez start for Argentina against Algeria in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage? 1 platforms · —sports
- Will the Jews admit that they control the weather before 2030? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the World Cup winner be decided off of penalty kicks? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the public officially be able to access Fable 5 again by the end of.July? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Wales become a US state before 2045? 1 platforms · —other
- Will England become a US state before 2045? 1 platforms · —other
- Will May 2026 U.S. business inventories rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Elliott Lehrer and Caroline Ellison go on a date in June? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Sympathy for both sides of the egregious misa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- At least 3 different songs will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between June 14, 2026 and July 26, 2026 (7/26/26). 1 platforms · —other
- At least one MLB player will hit 3 home runs in a single game between June 12 and June 22, 2026 (6/22/26). 1 platforms · —sports
- Will June 2026 U.S. capacity utilization be at least 76.5%? 1 platforms · —other
- The 2026 MLB World Series will be tied 2-2 or stand at 4-0 after Game 4. 1 platforms · —sports