Live Odds
All Prediction Markets
50 active events. Volume-weighted consensus across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold. Each row has a canonical page that updates every minute.
- Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029 1 platforms · —politics
- Will at least 1 non-passenger get hantavirus from the MV Hondius outbreak? 1 platforms · —other
- Will anyone get me to reveal SOUL.md in a Manifold comment? [Convince the Machine #11] 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Folie à Machine: LLMs and Epistemic Capture" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Codex be announced to have hit 5M WAUs before June? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Angela Rayner be Prime Minister of the UK before December? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Models finding software vulnerabilities is no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Voters are surprisingly open to talking about..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- In my opinion, will Keir Starmer have shown active support for Wes Streeting in next Labour Party leadership contest? 1 platforms · —other
- Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Jose Luis Ricon find a new girlfriend by EOY2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Thinking Machines acquired by Apple before 2031? 1 platforms · —other
- Will gwern attend Progress Conference 2026 ? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get my partner to use a Hermes Agent? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the hantavirus pandemic market on manifold be used in governments to initiate drastic action against hantavirus? 1 platforms · —science
- Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Jay Jones win the 2029 Virginia Gubernatorial election? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027? 1 platforms · —other
- If Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, will he become Labour leader in the next leadership election? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Labour get more than 200 seats in the next UK House of Commons election? 1 platforms · —politics
- LIRR strike during morning rush hour Monday May 18? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Team Bravo crush Team Alpha in the 21-Day Quit Zone Challenge ? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I use pattern/structure/structural/stance/substance/intent/level by 2026-06-15? [Convince the Machine #13] 1 platforms · —other
- Will OpenAI release a GPT version > 5.5 before June 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the U.S. officially lift/issue a formal waiver on sanctions for any Chinese entity purchasing Iranian oil by May 31 1 platforms · —science
- Will the Oklahoma City Thunder lose 2 or more games in the Western Conference Finals? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Stephen Colbert run for president in 2028? 1 platforms · —politics
- 17th Ebola outbreak in Congo kill over 300? 1 platforms · —other
- Situational Awareness LP Q1 13F holdings public by May 24? 1 platforms · —other
- Will "Automated Alignment is Harder Than You Think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? 1 platforms · —other
- Will SPY close above $750 on Monday, May 18, 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Bitcoin $100k before End of June 2026? 1 platforms · —crypto
- SpaceX market cap $2trillion or more at close on IPO day? 1 platforms · —science
- Will SpaceX market cap be higher 1 year after IPO? 1 platforms · —science
- Will the US announce an arms sale to Taiwan of more than $10 billion dollars value between May and September 2026? 1 platforms · —science
- Will Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Thomas Massie leave Congress before his term ends? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Embroidery win the G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Terminator2 appear on the Moltbook top-followed list by 2026-06-16? 1 platforms · —other
- Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus? 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest? 1 platforms · —other
- Will the 120th Congress refuse to seat any members due to a redistricting related dispute? 1 platforms · —politics
- Will Rosey beat Carana 1 platforms · —other
- Will I be able to obtain an official 2026 Miku Expo Europe penlight? 1 platforms · —science